Waste Connections stock forecast
The weighted forecast reaches C$294.44 by October 2029, with 25% bear, 56% base and 19% bull scenarios. It hinges on better cash conversion, a successful RNG ramp and easing Chiquita outflows.
Where could Waste Connections shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast reaches C$242.38 by October 2027, a 12% total return including dividends, and C$294.44 by October 2029, a 38% total return. Scenario probabilities are 25% bear, 56% base and 19% bull; October 2029 outcomes range from C$159.41 to C$436.11.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 194.14 (-10 %) | 175.23 (-18 %) | 159.41 (-24 %) |
| Base | 56 % | 250.11 (+16 %) | 279.06 (+30 %) | 306.66 (+44 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 283.06 (+31 %) | 354.56 (+64 %) | 436.11 (+103 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 242.38 (+12 %) | 267.45 (+25 %) | 294.44 (+38 %) |
What has to go right for Waste Connections?
The base case assumes fiscal-year EBITDA of $3.550 billion in 2027, $3.780 billion in 2028 and $4.000 billion in 2029. Volumes stabilize, pricing remains positive, RNG begins contributing after startup and Chiquita outflows ease. The bear case allows a down year and reaches only $3.335 billion by October 2029. The bull case assumes C&D recovery, stronger route density and successful RNG execution, reaching $4.506 billion. C&D tonnes were still about 15% below 2023 despite a small Q2 recovery, which supports the wide operating range.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 3,505 (3,244 / 3,624) | 3,732 (3,268 / 4,056) | 3,954 (3,335 / 4,506) |
| Shares (millions) | 250 (252 / 248) | 248 (252 / 244) | 247 (252 / 241) |
| Dividends per share | 1.44 (1.40 / 1.44) | 1.54 (1.40 / 1.57) | 1.69 (1.40 / 1.76) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 15.00 (13.50 / 16.00) | 15.20 (12.50 / 17.00) | 15.30 (11.50 / 18.00) |
| Net debt | 8,640 (9,460 / 8,640) | 8,040 (9,860 / 8,040) | 7,340 (10,160 / 7,260) |
How much cash does Waste Connections really make?
The company’s own free-cash-flow measure was higher because it allows selected additions, including asset-sale proceeds and certain expense adjustments. Deducting stock compensation produces “real free cash flow,” which treats the transfer of value through shares as an economic cost. That measure converted 36.4% of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,414,069 | 2,228,927 | 2,126,817 | 2,022,492 | 1,698,229 |
| − Capital spending | 1,194,366 | 1,055,988 | 934,000 | 912,677 | 744,315 |
| − Lease payments | 4,189 | 3,356 | 2,817 | 2,427 | 3,133 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,215,514 | 1,169,583 | 1,190,000 | 1,107,388 | 950,781 |
| − Stock pay | 79,448 | 77,885 | 70,436 | 63,485 | 58,221 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,136,066 | 1,091,698 | 1,119,564 | 1,043,903 | 892,560 |
What does an investor pay for Waste Connections today?
The trailing P/E of 36.9x means investors pay C$36.90 for each C$1 of recent earnings. The forward multiple uses expected earnings, so the difference partly reflects recovery from unusual charges and partly reflects the choice between reported and adjusted profit.
Free cash flow yield is therefore more useful than EBITDA alone, provided “free” cash funds recurring fleet replacement and landfill development. The dividend yield is only 0.9%, so dividend income cannot carry the investment case.