Valero earnings date and guidance
Valero's next results are expected on October 22, 2026. Watch whether St. Charles is operating reliably and whether Port Arthur's damaged distillate hydrotreater returns to service.
What has Valero guided for the year?
Valero’s payout promise is tied to adjusted operating cash flow, not accounting profit. The measure removes temporary movements in inventories, customer payments, and supplier bills, as well as the portion of Diamond Green Diesel’s cash flow belonging to its other owner. “Through-cycle” means the payout policy is intended to operate across both strong and weak refining markets. The separate leverage target limits how far distributions can weaken the balance sheet.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital investments | Year to Dec 2026 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Capital investments attributable to Valero | Year to Dec 2026 | 2,000 | 2,000 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Capital investments related to the March 2026 incident at our Port Arthur Refinery | Year to Dec 2026 | 250 | 250 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Pension plan contributions | Year to Dec 2026 | 70 | 70 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| Other postretirement benefit plan contributions | Year to Dec 2026 | 20 | 20 | Jul 30, 2026 |
| St. Charles FCC Unit optimization project | Project completed in 2026 | 230 | 230 | Jul 30, 2026 |
What this means. The 230 million dollars for the St. Charles project is the total project cost, not the amount Valero will spend during 2026.
Has Valero kept its past promises?
Valero promises a through-cycle annual payout of 40%–50% of adjusted operating cash flow. The payout includes dividends and repurchases, while the cash-flow measure removes specified items. In 2025, the company returned $4.003 billion. Repurchases accounted for $2.598 billion, while dividends accounted for $1.405 billion.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Share buybacks | 2,598 | 2,875 | 5,136 | 4,577 | 27 |
| Buybacks minus stock pay (calculated) | 2,481 | 2,775 | 5,029 | 4,474 | -61 |
| Diluted shares | 309 | 322 | 353 | 396 | 407 |
| Shares outstanding at year end | 298.940136 | 314.863703 | 333.301916 | 372.128635 | 409.195638 |
| Diluted shares (average of the year), change (calculated) | -4.0% | -8.8% | -10.9% | -2.7% | 0.0% |
What do Valero's last eight quarters show?
The June 2026 quarter showed a real operating rebound, amplified by an unusually weak comparison. Revenue and operating income rose sharply because gasoline and diesel margins improved, while renewable diesel returned to profit and ethanol benefited from stronger economics and credits.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 44,476 | 32,381 | 30,372 | 32,168 | 29,889 | 30,258 | 30,756 | 32,876 |
| Gross margin | 12.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.3% |
| Operating income | 5,196 | 1,731 | 1,575 | 1,509 | 997 | -900 | 348 | 507 |
| Net income | 3,720 | 1,263 | 1,134 | 1,095 | 714 | -595 | 281 | 364 |
| EPS, diluted | 12.62 | 4.22 | 3.73 | 3.53 | 2.28 | -1.90 | 0.88 | 1.14 |
| = Free cash flow | 5,230 | 942 | 1,647 | 1,472 | 529 | 293 | 523 | 866 |
What this means. Free cash flow may look higher than the cash truly available because it leaves out money spent on joint ventures.
What should I watch in Valero's next results?
Valero’s next firm reporting date is October 22, 2026, with the results call at 10 a.m. Eastern. By then, the St. Charles startup deadline will have passed. Completion alone is not enough: management should report reliable operation, additional saleable output, and evidence that the project is earning its expected margin.
Port Arthur presents a different test. The March 23 fire shut the refinery, although normal throughput returned during the second quarter. The damaged distillate hydrotreater, a unit that removes sulfur from fuels such as diesel, still had to return to service by year-end. Its capacity is 47,000 barrels per day. Because crude processing can resume before every product-making unit is repaired, throughput alone cannot prove full recovery.