TSMC earnings date, guidance and results
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: TSMC's next results are expected on January 21, 2027. The key watch is whether new capacity converts demand into profitable, well-loaded production.
What has TSMC guided for 2026?
Management guides to 44% revenue growth in U.S.-dollar terms for the year to December 2026. Its capital budget is US$60–64 billion. For the quarter to December 2026, revenue guidance is US$52.3–54.3 billion, while overseas fabs are expected to dilute 2026 gross margin by about 2 percentage points.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (US$ billions) | Quarter to Dec 2026 | 52.3 | 54.3 | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Revenue growth in US dollar terms | Year to Dec 2026 | 44.0% | 44.0% | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Capital budget (US$ billions) | Year to Dec 2026 | 60 | 64 | Oct 15, 2026 |
| Gross margin dilution from overseas fabs | Year to Dec 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0% | Oct 15, 2026 |
Did TSMC keep its past promises?
TSMC has also set ambitious financial goals. An earlier target called for 10–15% annual U.S.-dollar revenue growth through 2025. It also called for ROE of at least 20% across cycles. In 2025, revenue grew 35.9% in U.S. dollars. Gross margin reached 59.9% that year.
What do TSMC's last eight quarters show?
Revenue fell in 2023, then grew strongly in 2024 and 2025 as operating margin recovered. The company’s real free cash flow, computed from its cash-flow statement as cash from operations minus capital spending and stock pay, turned sharply higher in 2025 while net cash increased. Diluted EPS and real free cash flow per ADS also rose in 2025; the key valuation number is a 1.5% free cash flow yield amid continuing fab investment.
In the quarter ended September 2026, revenue rose 51% from a year earlier. Operating income, net income and earnings per share rose even faster, while operating cash more than doubled and free cash flow also improved. The strength therefore reached sales, profit and cash rather than appearing in only one line.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,494,243 | 1,270,381 | 1,134,103 | 1,046,090 | 989,918 | 933,792 | 839,254 | 868,461 |
| Operating income | 876,445 | 766,603 | 658,966 | 564,903 | 500,685 | 463,423 | 407,081 | 425,713 |
| Net income | 763,064 | 706,562 | 572,480 | 505,744 | 452,302 | 398,273 | 361,564 | 374,680 |
| EPS, diluted | 147.13 | 136.23 | 110.38 | 97.52 | 87.22 | 76.80 | 69.72 | 72.25 |
What should TSMC watch in the next results?
The December 2026 quarter tests guidance against two-nanometer ramp costs and overseas-fab dilution. TSMC plans to double N2 family annual capacity by 2027; customer adoption, yield improvement and loading will test whether that investment is productive. CoWoS expansion must raise saleable throughput, while AI investment must translate into sustained orders through 2027–2028.