Intel stock forecast
Intel's weighted price is $85.88 in October 2027, a return of negative 20% including dividends. It hinges on turning improved operations into self-funded factory economics.
Where could Intel's shares be by 2029?
The bear case carries a 32% probability. The base case carries 50%. The bull case carries 18%. The forecast range runs from $22.66 in the bear case to $195.64 in the bull case.
The forecast puts Intel below today’s $107.08 share price at every date. The weighted price is $85.88 in October 2027, a return of negative 20% including dividends. It reaches $89.04 in October 2028, a negative 17% return. It reaches $93.04 in October 2029, a negative 13% return. The October 2029 range is wide: $22.66 in the bear case to $195.64 in the bull case. The base case is most likely, but the outcome depends on whether Intel turns improved operations into self-funded factory economics.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 32% | 45.86 (-57%) | 26.52 (-75%) | 22.66 (-79%) |
| Base | 50% | 93.37 (-13%) | 100.11 (-7%) | 101.14 (-6%) |
| Bull | 18% | 136.25 (+27%) | 169.45 (+58%) | 195.64 (+83%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 85.88 (-20%) | 89.04 (-17%) | 93.04 (-13%) |
What has to go right for Intel, and what could go wrong?
The EBITDA proxy rises in the base case from $17,000 million in October 2027 to $20,000 million in October 2028 and $23,000 million in October 2029. The June quarter supports a recovery: revenue was $16,128 million and operating income was $1,796 million. Guidance points to gradual improvement, with quarterly revenue expected between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion. The bear case falls to $12,000 million, then $10,000 million, before recovering to $11,000 million because PC weakness, pricing pressure and poor utilization could overwhelm 18A progress. The bull case reaches $20,500 million, $27,000 million and $33,000 million as yields, server demand, packaging orders and 14A customer volume improve. Risk production is planned for late 2027 and high-volume production for 2028, so the forecast delays major 14A benefits.
How much cash does Intel really make?
Intel generated US$9,697 million from operations and spent US$14,646 million on capital spending. The resulting free-cash-flow shortfall was US$4,949 million. Free cash flow is what remains after the business pays for the equipment and facilities needed to operate. The improvement from the previous year was substantial, but lower investment did most of the work.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,697 | 8,288 | 11,471 | 15,433 | 29,456 |
| Capital spending | 14,646 | 23,944 | 25,750 | 24,844 | 18,733 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | -4,949 | -15,656 | -14,279 | -9,411 | 10,723 |
| Free cash flow as the company reports it | -1,612 | -2,228 | -11,853 | -4,075 | 10,889 |
| Stock-based pay | 2,434 | 3,410 | 3,229 | 3,128 | 2,036 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | -7,383 | -19,066 | -17,508 | -12,539 | 8,687 |
What does an investor pay for Intel today?
At today’s $107.08, Intel’s market value is $540,112 million. A forward price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with expected profit. Intel’s 50.0x forward P/E means investors pay $50 for each $1 of profit expected over the next year. That implies about $2.14 of earnings per share. The price works only if that future profit arrives.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 107.08 |
| Market value (calculated) | 540,112 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | not meaningful |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 50.0x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 6.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.5% |