Teck stock forecast
Teck's weighted scenario is C$26.28 in October 2027. It hinges on QB reliability, recovery and tailings progress.
Where could Teck's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted forecast falls from C$26.28 in October 2027 to C$17.64 in October 2029, implying returns of negative 71% and negative 80%, including dividends. The 2029 range is exceptionally wide: C$5.55 in the bear case to C$38.40 in the bull case, against C$93.37 today.
Scenario probabilities are 30% bear and 50% base. The bull case has 20% probability. QB reliability, recovery and tailings progress are the immediate operating tests. Teck’s next scheduled results release is October 29, 2026. Merger completion is scheduled within the September 2026–March 2027 window. Through 2027, copper delivery, zinc declines, unit costs and sustaining capital will determine cash conversion. Longer term, reserve replacement and HVC’s extension through 2046 shape the production runway. Remember: Teck must turn copper growth into cash while QB and the merger remain the central risks.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 34.57 (-62 %) | 16.92 (-81 %) | 5.55 (-92 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 19.70 (-78 %) | 18.46 (-79 %) | 16.59 (-81 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 30.29 (-67 %) | 35.68 (-61 %) | 38.40 (-57 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 26.28 (-71 %) | 21.44 (-76 %) | 17.64 (-80 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Teck?
EBITDA is the largest operating swing. The base case falls from C$5,190 million in 2027 to C$4,660 million in 2029; the bear case falls from C$3,590 million to C$1,990 million, while the bull case rises from C$6,540 million to C$7,170 million. The base starts above 2025 adjusted EBITDA of C$4,333 million because copper production is guided to 505–580 thousand tonnes in 2027, but it moderates as prices normalize and zinc declines. Three quarters without TMF-related downtime support the bull case, while prior disruption and negative free cash flow support the bear case.
How much cash does Teck really make?
Cash from operations reached C$1,479 million in 2025, while capital spending was C$2,062 million. After lease payments and interest, free cash flow was negative C$1,381 million. Including stock compensation as an economic cost takes it to negative C$1,447 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,479 | 430 | -563 |
| − Capital spending | 2,062 | 2,635 | 4,340 |
| − Interest paid | 686 | 863 | 722 |
| = Free cash flow | -1,381 | -3,136 | -5,704 |
| − Stock pay | 66 | 91 | 81 |
| = Real free cash flow | -1,447 | -3,227 | -5,785 |
What this means. The company brought in cash from daily operations, but its much larger spending on equipment and buildings left free cash flow negative.
What does an investor pay today for Teck?
Free cash flow remained negative, while the dividend yield was thin. That means the share price did not buy an abundant cash surplus. Class B subordinate voting shares carry one vote against Class A’s 100, but both classes rank equally for dividends and distributions. The difference is control, not a smaller economic claim.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 93.37 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 18.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -3.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -3.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.5% |
What this means. The market value counts both classes of shares because each represents the same economic ownership, even though the merger conversion has not been completed.