First Quantum stock forecast
The weighted scenario is CAD 24.87 in October 2027, CAD 29.61 in October 2028 and CAD 39.32 in October 2029. It hinges on operating recovery, debt reduction and Panama’s legal path.
Where could First Quantum's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to downside over one and two years, followed by a small positive return by October 2029. The probability-weighted price is CAD 24.87 in October 2027, CAD 29.61 in October 2028 and CAD 39.32 in October 2029, including dividends. Against today’s CAD 37.87, those returns are negative 34%, negative 22% and positive 4%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 0.00 (-100 %) | 0.00 (-100 %) | 0.00 (-100 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 26.25 (-31 %) | 30.40 (-20 %) | 33.13 (-13 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 52.19 (+38 %) | 64.43 (+71 %) | 105.48 (+179 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 24.87 (-34 %) | 29.61 (-22 %) | 39.32 (+4 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for First Quantum?
EBITDA is the central operating driver. The base case holds it near USD 2.5 billion across the forecast, at USD 2.543 billion, USD 2.586 billion and USD 2.534 billion. It uses midpoint copper guidance, S3 and Enterprise production, and no full Panama restart. Management guides to copper production of 410–470 thousand tonnes in 2027 and 430–490 thousand tonnes in 2028.
The bear case falls from USD 734 million to USD 210 million because copper output and margins weaken, Zambia remains costly and Panama contributes no restart production. The bull case rises from USD 3.598 billion to USD 5.215 billion because costs improve, copper prices are stronger and a partial Panama restart adds production in the final year. First Quantum’s history supports caution: adjusted EBITDA declined sharply before its modest 2025 recovery.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 2,543 (734 / 3,598) | 2,586 (553 / 3,762) | 2,534 (210 / 5,215) |
| Shares (millions) | 835 (854 / 830) | 835 (875 / 826) | 836 (895 / 822) |
| Dividends per share | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.04) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.07) | 0.00 (0.00 / 0.07) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 8.50 (5.00 / 10.00) | 9.00 (4.50 / 11.00) | 9.50 (4.00 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 6,143 (7,187 / 5,392) | 5,342 (7,754 / 3,809) | 4,523 (8,574 / 1,382) |
How much cash does First Quantum really make?
Free cash flow therefore needs a stricter reading. After capital spending, lease payments and interest, cash can be negative even when operating cash is positive. Receivables make the problem sharper: Zambian VAT remained tied up rather than available for debt service. The cash-flow table shows what survives after the main cash claims.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,082 | 1,651 | 1,427 | 2,332 | 2,885 |
| − Capital spending | 1,134 | 1,286 | 1,300 | 1,167 | 995 |
| − Interest paid | 526 | 573 | 553 | 472 | 525 |
| = Free cash flow | -432 | 684 | 1,356 | ||
| − Stock pay | 58 | 54 | 50 | 47 | 33 |
| = Real free cash flow | -482 | 637 | 1,323 |
What this means. The blank free cash flow figures for 2024 and 2025 do not mean zero; the report could not separate lease payments from other cash payments, so those totals are unverified.
What does an investor pay for First Quantum today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with earnings per share. A forward P/E uses expected earnings, so it can look reasonable while the latest quarter reported US$136 million of attributable earnings alongside an adjusted loss of US$106 million. The adjustment may remove unusual items, but it remains management’s definition, and accounting earnings are not cash.