Sempra dividend: cash coverage and yield
Sempra’s forecast base dividend rises from $2.74 to $2.97 per share, while free cash flow is negative after heavy capital spending. The dividend is therefore not covered by the latest year’s free cash flow.
How much does Sempra pay in dividends?
The base dividend rises from $2.74 to $2.97 per share, using 4% annual growth. That is slightly below the historical pace and below EPS growth, leaving more cash for the $64.9 billion investment plan. The bear case freezes the latest annualized $2.63 dividend, while the bull case reaches $3.04 through 5% annual increases.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 3,537 (3,275 / 3,733) | 3,861 (3,425 / 4,092) | 4,223 (3,518 / 4,489) |
| Shares (millions) | 655 (656 / 655) | 656 (659 / 655) | 657 (663 / 656) |
| Dividends per share | 2.74 (2.63 / 2.76) | 2.85 (2.63 / 2.90) | 2.97 (2.63 / 3.04) |
| Price to earnings | 15.50 (13.50 / 17.00) | 15.50 (12.50 / 18.00) | 15.50 (12.00 / 19.00) |
Does Sempra’s dividend fit its free cash flow?
In 2025, operations generated $4,565 million, while capital spending consumed $10,612 million. Free cash flow was therefore negative $6,047 million. After stock pay, “real” free cash flow was negative $6,111 million. This does not mean the existing utilities produce no cash; it means current operating cash did not fund the year’s expansion.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | -6,047 | -3,308 | -2,179 | -4,215 | -1,173 |
| − Dividends paid | 1,603 | 1,499 | 1,483 | 1,430 | 1,331 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 450 | 300 |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 8,259 | 5,104 | 4,392 | 6,332 | 2,804 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | not meaningful | not meaningful | not meaningful | not meaningful | not meaningful |
What this means. The company paid dividends and other shareholder payments even though its business used cash, so it had to use savings or borrow money to cover them.
What could change Sempra’s dividend?
The forecast would move toward the bear case if fewer queue projects reach service during 2027–2029, approvals or wildfire recovery weaken, or delayed sale proceeds push debt and interest costs higher.
What is Sempra’s dividend yield today?
The probability-weighted price is $81.46 in October 2027, including dividends for a 1% return from today’s $83.41. It rises to $87.56 in October 2028, a 12% return, and $94.91 in October 2029, a 24% return. By the last date, the bear-to-bull range is $63.71 to $130.04.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 83.41 |
| Market value (calculated) | 54,541.83 |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.2% |