Duke Energy stock forecast
The weighted Duke Energy scenario is $115.13 by October 2029. The Duke Energy outcome hinges on large-load demand becoming earnings and investment recovery keeping pace with financing.
Where could Duke Energy's shares go?
The weighted price is $111.25 by October 2027, a -3% return. It is $115.13 by October 2029, a +8% return including dividends. The bear case has 25% probability. The base case has 55%. The bull case has 20%. The bear case assumes delayed large-load projects, weaker rate recovery and greater dilution. The bull case requires customers to energize on schedule, supportive recovery and controlled construction.
Duke’s probability-weighted outcome is modest: $111.25 in October 2027, a 3% loss including dividends. It reaches $114.02 in October 2028, a 3% gain, and $115.13 in October 2029, an 8% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 100.04 (-12 %) | 91.55 (-16 %) | 81.63 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 111.77 (-2 %) | 115.42 (+5 %) | 117.03 (+10 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 123.80 (+8 %) | 138.24 (+24 %) | 151.80 (+39 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 111.25 (-3 %) | 114.02 (+3 %) | 115.13 (+8 %) |
What has to go right for Duke Energy, and what could go wrong?
The bull case requires customers to energize contracted capacity on schedule, regulators to support recovery and construction execution to remain controlled. The price reaches $123.80 initially and $151.80 by October 2029. Its probability is 20% because the 7.8 GW of signed agreements provide a credible route to faster growth, but several uncertain conditions must succeed together.
How much cash does Duke Energy really make?
In 2025, Duke earned $4,967 million and generated $12,330 million of operating cash. It then spent $14,024 million on capital projects, leaving free cash flow negative. Free cash flow means operating cash after capital spending. The deficit does not mean the projects are unprofitable; it means Duke pays contractors and equipment suppliers before the completed assets produce their full customer revenue.
Stock compensation is a further owner cost. Subtracting $95 million of stock pay from 2025 free cash flow produces a more demanding measure of what remained for shareholders. Asset sales supplied cash too, but proceeds from selling businesses do not prove that recurring operations generated more cash. The balance sheet must fund the wait until investment becomes customer collections.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 12,330 | 12,328 | 9,878 | 5,927 | 8,290 |
| − Capital spending | 14,024 | 12,280 | 12,604 | 11,367 | 9,715 |
| = Free cash flow | -1,694 | 48 | -2,726 | -5,440 | -1,425 |
| − Stock pay | 95 | 90 | 91 | 95 | 83 |
| = Real free cash flow | -1,789 | -42 | -2,817 | -5,535 | -1,508 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -5.5% | -0.1% | -9.7% | -19.2% | -6.1% |
What this means. The business brought in cash from daily operations, but it spent even more on equipment, buildings, and software, leaving negative free cash flow.
What does an investor pay for Duke Energy today?
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 118.88 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -1.9% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.7% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yield means the company spent more cash than it generated in the latest year, so this measure shows a cash shortfall rather than income for investors.