Southern stock forecast
Southern's weighted forecast is $86.79 in October 2027 and $102.26 in October 2029. It hinges on contracted demand becoming approved earning assets without financing and dilution overwhelming per-share growth.
Where could Southern's shares be by 2029?
The forecast puts Southern’s probability-weighted share price at $86.79 in October 2027, $94.19 in October 2028 and $102.26 in October 2029. At today’s $89.88 price, that is roughly flat with dividends in the first year, followed by returns of 12% and 25%.
The October 2029 outcomes range from $79.62 in the bear case to $126.85 in the bull case. The base case carries the greatest probability because regulated earnings and contracted demand support growth, but financing and execution prevent a more optimistic central estimate.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27% | 76.92 (-11%) | 77.26 (-7%) | 79.62 (-0%) |
| Base | 53% | 87.32 (+1%) | 95.92 (+14%) | 104.51 (+27%) |
| Bull | 20% | 98.74 (+13%) | 112.46 (+33%) | 126.85 (+53%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 86.79 (+0%) | 94.19 (+12%) | 102.26 (+25%) |
What has to go right—and wrong—for Southern?
The bear case begins at $4.72 and reaches $4.95 in the second period. It ends at $5.18 because slower customer ramps, delayed approvals, interest costs and dilution absorb more of the programme’s benefits. The bull case begins at $5.05. It then uses $5.55 and ends at $6.05, assuming contracted customers energize on schedule and investment enters rate base promptly. Southern has reported 17 GW across 31 contracted projects, with minimum bills and termination payments protecting dedicated investment.
How much cash does Southern really make?
“Real free cash flow” goes one step further by subtracting stock compensation, treating shares given to employees as an economic cost. The remaining cash must fund construction, dividends and debt obligations. Negative free cash flow can support attractive regulated growth, but only if completed assets enter rate base and begin producing customer cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,802 | 9,788 | 7,553 | 6,302 | 6,169 |
| − Capital spending | 12,737 | 8,955 | 9,095 | 7,923 | 7,586 |
| = Free cash flow | -2,935 | 833 | -1,542 | -1,621 | -1,417 |
| = Real free cash flow | -3,071 | 701 | -1,679 | -1,748 | -1,561 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -10.4% | 2.6% | -6.6% | -6.0% | -6.8% |
What this means. The company brought in cash from daily business, but spent more on equipment and software, so free cash flow was negative.
What does an investor pay for Southern today?
The P/E ratio compares a share price with the earnings produced for each share. Southern’s recent earnings imply about $4.14 per share, while the next-twelve-month estimate implies about $4.94. The lower forward multiple therefore assumes earnings rise. Investors must also distinguish reported earnings from adjusted earnings, which remove specified items, and calendar-year forecasts from estimates covering the next twelve months.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 89.88 |
| Market value (calculated) | 103,394.62 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 21.7x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -2.8% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yield means the company spent more cash than it generated during the latest year.