Sempra stock forecast
Sempra's probability-weighted price is $94.91 in October 2029. It hinges on utility investment entering rates and the SI Partners sale closing without material damage.
Where could Sempra's shares be by October 2029?
The bear case is $63.71, a −14% return. The base case is $99.58, a +30% return. The bull case is $130.04, a +66% return. Bear and base probabilities are 30% and 50%. The bull probability is 20%.
The probability-weighted price is $81.46 in October 2027, including dividends for a 1% return from today’s $83.41. It rises to $87.56 in October 2028, a 12% return, and $94.91 in October 2029, a 24% return. By the last date, the bear-to-bull range is $63.71 to $130.04.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 67.42 (-16 %) | 64.95 (-16 %) | 63.71 (-14 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 83.69 (+4 %) | 91.20 (+16 %) | 99.58 (+30 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 96.93 (+20 %) | 112.40 (+42 %) | 130.04 (+66 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 81.46 (+1 %) | 87.56 (+12 %) | 94.91 (+24 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it can differ from the base case.
What has to go right or wrong for Sempra's forecast?
Earnings provide the main path: the base case rises from $3,537 million in October 2027 to $4,223 million in October 2029. That corresponds to EPS of $5.40, $5.85 and $6.35, using approximately 655 million diluted shares near term. The path broadly delivers management’s 7%–9% long-term EPS target and assumes utility investment enters rates and the SI Partners sale closes without material damage.
The bear case gives earnings of $3,275 million, $3,425 million and $3,518 million, from EPS of $5.00, $5.15 and $5.25. It assumes slower load conversion, regulatory delays and higher financing costs. The bull case gives $3,733 million, $4,092 million and $4,489 million, from EPS of $5.70, $6.20 and $6.75, because Texas connections, tracker recovery and ECA LNG commissioning exceed the base path.
How much cash does Sempra really make?
In 2025, operations generated $4,565 million, while capital spending consumed $10,612 million. Free cash flow was therefore negative $6,047 million. After stock pay, “real” free cash flow was negative $6,111 million. This does not mean the existing utilities produce no cash; it means current operating cash did not fund the year’s expansion.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,565 | 4,907 | 6,218 | 1,142 | 3,842 |
| − Capital spending | 10,612 | 8,215 | 8,397 | 5,357 | 5,015 |
| = Free cash flow | -6,047 | -3,308 | -2,179 | -4,215 | -1,173 |
| − Stock pay | 64 | 86 | 80 | 71 | 63 |
| = Real free cash flow | -6,111 | -3,394 | -2,259 | -4,286 | -1,236 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -44.6% | -25.7% | -13.5% | -29.7% | -9.6% |
What this means. Free cash flow is negative because the company spent more on equipment and buildings than its day-to-day business brought in.
What does an investor pay for Sempra today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 83.41 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 24.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -11.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -11.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.2% |