NextEra Energy stock forecast
NextEra Energy's weighted forecast is $76.12 for October 2027 and $85.88 for October 2029, with dividends included. It hinges on FPL recovery, NEER conversion, funding discipline and merger execution.
Where could NextEra Energy's shares be by 2029?
Weighted price is $76.12 for October 2027. That is a +1% return. For October 2029, it is $85.88. That is a +21% return, with dividends included. Bear probability is 25%. Base probability is 55%. Bull probability is 20%. Outcomes range from $47.90 in the bear case to $128.50 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 54.84 (-27 %) | 51.70 (-27 %) | 47.90 (-29 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 77.78 (+3 %) | 82.99 (+13 %) | 87.65 (+23 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 98.15 (+29 %) | 112.93 (+52 %) | 128.50 (+76 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 76.12 (+1 %) | 81.15 (+11 %) | 85.88 (+21 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average expected share value after giving more influence to cases with higher probabilities.
What has to go right for NextEra Energy?
The weighted forecast points to a modest gain by October 2027 and a larger gain by October 2029, hinging on FPL recovery, NEER conversion, funding discipline and merger execution. Management guides to 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.92–$4.02. It promises at least 8% annual adjusted-EPS growth through 2032. Dividend growth is about 10% in 2026. That becomes 6% annually through 2028. If the merger closes, the combined company promises at least 9% adjusted-EPS growth through 2032.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 9,125 (8,292 / 9,853) | 9,855 (8,541 / 10,937) | 10,644 (8,797 / 12,140) |
| Shares (millions) | 2,112 (2,117 / 2,108) | 2,138 (2,148 / 2,131) | 2,186 (2,204 / 2,173) |
| Dividends per share | 2.65 (2.50 / 2.70) | 2.81 (2.55 / 2.92) | 2.97 (2.60 / 3.15) |
| Price to earnings | 18.00 (14.00 / 21.00) | 18.00 (13.00 / 22.00) | 18.00 (12.00 / 23.00) |
How much cash does NextEra Energy really make?
Not all construction is growth. Some spending maintains existing equipment. Energy Resources’ project cash measure includes maintenance spending but excludes new development, so it helps assess existing projects without replacing consolidated free cash flow. Working capital absorbed $373 million in 2025. After deducting $185 million of stock compensation, real free cash flow was negative $12,306 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 12,485 | 13,260 | 11,301 | 8,262 | 7,553 |
| − Capital spending | 24,606 | 24,729 | 25,113 | 19,283 | 16,077 |
| = Free cash flow | -12,121 | -11,469 | -13,812 | -11,021 | -8,524 |
| − Stock pay | 185 | 138 | 139 | 142 | 119 |
| = Real free cash flow | -12,306 | -11,607 | -13,951 | -11,163 | -8,643 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -44.9% | -46.9% | -49.6% | -53.3% | -50.6% |
What this means. Capital spending includes acquisitions and investments as well as equipment, buildings, and software, so it is broader than the usual meaning of money spent to maintain the business.
What do investors pay for NextEra Energy today?
The rows show today’s share price, market value, enterprise value, valuation multiples, cash-flow yields and dividend yield.