Safran stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast puts the shares at €213.08 in October 2027. It hinges on profitable LEAP services, reliable production and cash conversion.
Where could Safran’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast puts the shares at €213.08 in October 2027, with the price hinging on profitable LEAP services, reliable production and cash conversion. It reaches €252.05 in October 2029, still a -5% return.
The bear case has a 27% probability. The base case has 53%, and the bull case 20%. Supplier constraints, inventory and production costs decide whether deliveries become reliable through 2027–2028. LEAP shop work must produce profitable visits and cash, not merely service revenue. The checkpoints are the December 3, 2026 IFRS 18 workshop and February 9, 2027 full-year results, followed by the April 23, 2027 revenue update and July 28, 2027 first-half results.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 143.09 (-47 %) | 132.65 (-50 %) | 127.51 (-50 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 221.65 (-19 %) | 238.25 (-11 %) | 250.43 (-5 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 284.87 (+4 %) | 349.08 (+29 %) | 424.44 (+58 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 213.08 (-22 %) | 231.90 (-14 %) | 252.05 (-5 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving more weight to the more likely cases, so it can be below today's price even when the bull case is above it.
What has to go right for Safran, and what could go wrong?
The bear case starts at €3,285 million and reaches €3,420 million. It ends at €3,510 million because supplier delays, constrained repair capacity and slower contract recognition hold margins at 9.0%. The bull case starts at €4,510 million and reaches €5,290 million. It ends at €6,180 million if suppliers catch up, deliveries become more economic and valuable shop visits accelerate. Safran’s recent service and spare-parts growth supports the opportunity, but its record includes two years below delivery guidance.
How much cash does Safran really make?
Definitions also matter. The alternative 2024 free-cash-flow measure was €3.59 billion, versus €3.19 billion in Safran’s count. Subtracting stock pay reduced the alternative measure to €3.48 billion. Stock compensation does not use current cash, but it transfers value to employees through shares. The missing lease-payment entry prevents the same calculation from being completed consistently for 2025.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 3,588 | 3,317 | 2,929 | 1,934 | |
| − Stock pay | 109 | 106 | 89 | 32.9 | 25 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,482 | 3,228 | 2,896.1 | 1,909 | |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 3,921 | 3,189 | 2,945 | 2,666 | 1,680 |
| What its own count also takes out | 399 | 372 | 263 | 254 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is lower because it also subtracts money spent on intangible assets and research and development recorded as assets, which our count does not.
What does an investor pay today for Safran?
The trailing P/E is 29.8 times; the forward P/E is 21.3 times. Those ratios imply trailing earnings of €9.31 per share and forecast earnings of €13.03 per share. The lower forward multiple reflects a larger expected earnings denominator, not proof that the shares are cheap.
| Today (Oct 23, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 277.50 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 29.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 21.3x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 3.3x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 7.9x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.2% |
What this means. Enterprise value is lower than market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.