Rolls-Royce stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast starts at 1,414.14p in October 2027, with 53% probability for the base case. The investment turns on whether Trent durability and repair capacity convert the turnaround into durable per-share cash growth.
Where could Rolls-Royce’s shares go?
The weighted forecast starts at 1,414.14p in October 2027. It reaches 1,558.78p in October 2028, a 16% return including dividends. The bear case has 27% probability. The base case has 53%. The bull case has 20%.
The weighted price is 1414.14 GBp in October 2027, including dividends, for a 4% return from today. It rises to 1558.78 GBp in October 2028, a 16% return. By October 2029, it reaches 1659.86 GBp, or 24%. The three-year range runs from 913.78 GBp in the bear case to 2751.30 GBp in the bull case, against today’s 1372.20 GBp.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 885.77 (-35 %) | 904.36 (-33 %) | 913.78 (-32 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 1525.84 (+12 %) | 1619.61 (+20 %) | 1628.08 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1831.44 (+35 %) | 2281.07 (+69 %) | 2751.30 (+105 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1414.14 (+4 %) | 1558.78 (+16 %) | 1659.86 (+24 %) |
What could make Rolls-Royce’s forecast work or fail?
In 2026, Rolls-Royce must deliver raised profit and cash guidance and execute the buyback. It must also complete 768–838 shop visits in H2 2026 while managing £150m–£200m of supply-chain costs. By end of 2027, the durability target and Istanbul’s planned shop capacity must improve completed repairs and turnaround times. In 2028–2029, reliability and service capacity must sustain profit and cash growth. The investment turns on whether Trent durability and repair capacity convert the turnaround into durable per-share cash growth.
Operating profit is the main earnings driver. The base case starts at £5,170m in October 2027 and reaches £5,790m in October 2028. It reaches £6,150m in October 2029. The bear case stays below guidance as repair and working-capital pressure offset fleet growth; the bull case reaches £7,360m as Trent modifications and added shop capacity improve margins. Flying hours, Defence backlog and data-centre demand support the base, but the £986m onerous-contract provision and weaker Civil LTSA contribution show why costs remain a risk.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 5,170 (3,970 / 5,540) | 5,790 (4,340 / 6,490) | 6,150 (4,730 / 7,360) |
| Shares (millions) | 8,135 (8,092 / 8,154) | 7,970 (7,769 / 8,026) | 7,896 (7,698 / 7,966) |
| Dividends per share | 0.13 (0.06 / 0.15) | 0.17 (0.08 / 0.21) | 0.20 (0.10 / 0.26) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 23.00 (17.00 / 26.00) | 21.00 (15.00 / 27.00) | 19.00 (13.00 / 28.00) |
| Net debt | -5,217 (-4,187 / -5,297) | -7,497 (-5,157 / -7,847) | -11,697 (-8,857 / -13,087) |
How much cash does Rolls-Royce really make?
Cash from operations reached £4,565 million in the latest full year. Deducting capital spending, lease payments and interest produces a calculated free cash flow of £3,094 million. Charging stock-based pay as an economic cost reduces that amount further, because shares issued to employees transfer value even though they do not require immediate cash.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,565 | 3,782 | 2,485 | 1,524 | -259 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 3,094 | 2,314 | 1,200 | 407 | -1,461 |
| Stock-based pay | 98 | 95 | 49 | 46 | 28 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 2,996 | 2,219 | 1,151 | 361 | -1,489 |
| Free cash flow per share (calculated) | 36.62 | 27.42 | 14.28 | 4.87 | -17.49 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 35.46 | 26.29 | 13.69 | 4.32 | -17.83 |