RTX stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts RTX at $194.73 in October 2027 and $227.34 in October 2029, with the base case at 60% probability. It hinges on GTF repairs and profitable defense delivery.
Where could RTX's shares be in each forecast year?
The weighted forecast puts the price at $194.73 in October 2027, implying a +6% total return including dividends. The weighted price reaches $227.34 in October 2029, implying a +27% total return including dividends. The bear case has 22% probability and the base case 60%. The bull case has 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 22 % | 153.69 (-16 %) | 152.36 (-15 %) | 151.16 (-14 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 200.67 (+9 %) | 216.97 (+20 %) | 235.66 (+32 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 225.07 (+22 %) | 256.66 (+41 %) | 292.72 (+62 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 194.73 (+6 %) | 209.90 (+16 %) | 227.34 (+27 %) |
What has to go right for RTX's base, bear and bull cases?
The multiple stays near today’s level in the base case, rising from 3.8x to 4.0x. Improving GTF output, backlog conversion and debt reduction justify a modest premium, but continuing repair costs limit expansion. The bear case falls from 3.1x to 2.9x as execution problems widen the discount. The bull case reaches 4.8x if repairs prove durable and defense capacity converts into accepted deliveries and cash.
How much cash does RTX really make?
Stock compensation provides another adjustment. Deducting $519 million produces “real free cash flow” of $6,929 million. This is not an extra current-year cash payment; it recognises that employees received part of the company through shareholder dilution.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 10,567 | 7,159 | 7,883 | 7,168 | 7,142 |
| − Capital spending | 3,119 | 3,236 | 3,166 | 2,775 | 2,442 |
| = Free cash flow | 7,448 | 3,923 | 4,717 | 4,393 | 4,700 |
| − Stock pay | 519 | 437 | 425 | 420 | 442 |
| = Real free cash flow | 6,929 | 3,486 | 4,292 | 3,973 | 4,258 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.8% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% |
What does an investor pay for RTX today?
The trailing P/E compares the share price with the last twelve months of reported earnings. The forward P/E uses an estimate for the next twelve months, so it looks cheaper when investors expect profits to rise. At the forward multiple, the implied earnings are about US$7.94 per share. RTX’s July guidance was US$7.10–US$7.25 of adjusted earnings for calendar 2026, but that covers a different period and uses a different accounting basis. “Adjusted” earnings remove selected items, so the lower multiple is an expectation, not money already earned.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 186.50999 |
| Market value (calculated) | 251,370 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 280,448 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 32.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 23.5x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.0% |