Honeywell Aerospace stock forecast
Honeywell Aerospace’s weighted forecast is $161.17 in October 2027 and $207.06 in October 2029, with 30% probability on bear, 52% on base and 18% on bull. It hinges on supplier recovery.
Where could Honeywell Aerospace's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to a modest near-term result and a stronger third-year outcome. The weighted price is $161.17 in October 2027, a 4% loss with dividends. It reaches $179.50 in October 2028, a 7% gain. By October 2029, it is $207.06, a 23% gain.
The October 2029 bear value is $102.83. The bull value is $333.96, versus today’s $168.09. Bear has 30% probability and base has 52%. Bull has 18%. The range reflects execution risk around suppliers, margins, debt and cash generation.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 112.85 (-33 %) | 106.06 (-37 %) | 102.83 (-39 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 170.05 (+1 %) | 190.27 (+13 %) | 223.26 (+33 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 216.02 (+29 %) | 270.80 (+61 %) | 333.96 (+100 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 161.17 (-4 %) | 179.50 (+7 %) | 207.06 (+23 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Honeywell Aerospace?
The bear case gives $2,244 million, $2,248 million and $2,334 million. It assumes shortages persist, mix remains weak and recurring costs absorb more profit. The bull case gives $2,903 million, $3,297 million and $3,710 million because added capacity clears deferred demand and restores higher-margin service work. Q2 sales growth in aftermarket, commercial OE and defense supports recovery, but the guidance cut shows that execution remains uncertain.
How much cash does Honeywell Aerospace really make?
Free cash flow is cash from operations after capital spending. Subtracting stock compensation gives a stricter view of cash left for debt, investment or shareholders. The historical pattern shows strong conversion, but one year can benefit from the timing of payments and inventory.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,705 | 2,538 | 2,984 |
| − Capital spending | 504 | 488 | 387 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,201 | 2,050 | 2,597 |
| − Stock pay | 83 | 74 | 73 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,118 | 1,976 | 2,524 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 17.9% | 12.8% | 18.3% |
What this means. The company's free cash flow is 59 million dollars higher because it leaves out cash paid for Flexjet lawsuits, while we count that cash as spent.
What does an investor pay today for Honeywell Aerospace?
The table’s trailing P/E measures the price against the past twelve months’ earnings, while the forward P/E uses expected earnings for the next twelve months. The gap matters because it assumes earnings will recover. That recovery depends partly on selling more replacement parts, repairs and upgrades.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 168.09 |
| Market value (calculated) | 53,276.58 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 35.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 21.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.9% |
What this means. The price-to-book figure is not meaningful because the company was recently separated, so its balance sheet does not yet show what this standalone company owns and owes.