PMI earnings: guidance and what to watch
PMI's next results are expected on October 21, 2026. Watch ZYN consumer purchases against shipments.
What has PMI guided for the year?
The forecast points to a much lower price, hinging on whether repeat ZYN and IQOS demand becomes profitable cash growth. For 2026, management guides to currency-neutral adjusted EPS growth of 7.5%–9.5% and organic revenue growth of 5%–7%. Organic operating-income growth is 7%–9%. The plan assumes a 2%–3% cigarette shipment decline and US$13.5 billion of operating cash flow; capital expenditure is US$1.4–US$1.6 billion.
PMI still guides to currency-neutral adjusted EPS growth of 7.5%–9.5%. It also expects organic net revenue growth of 5%–7% and organic operating income growth of 7%–9%, despite a 2%–3% decline in cigarette shipments. Organic growth excludes currency, acquisitions and disposals.
| the period guided | low | high | the date it was given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted Diluted EPS growth, excluding currency | Year to Dec 2026 | 7.5% | 9.5% | 2026-09-08 |
| Cigarette shipment volume decline | Year to Dec 2026 | 2.0% | 3.0% | 2026-09-08 |
| Net revenue growth on an organic basis | Year to Dec 2026 | 5.0% | 7.0% | 2026-09-08 |
| Organic operating income growth | Year to Dec 2026 | 7.0% | 9.0% | 2026-09-08 |
| Operating cash flow | Year to Dec 2026 | 13,500 | 13,500 | 2026-09-08 |
| Capital expenditures | Year to Dec 2026 | 1,400 | 1,600 | 2026-09-08 |
Did PMI keep its past promises?
PMI promised to make smoke-free products available in 100 markets by the end of 2025, with at least half in low- and middle-income markets. It reached 106 markets, while smoke-free products represented 41.5% of total revenue. But availability is not replacement: a country can sell IQOS or ZYN while cigarette sales continue. PMI also reported that its combustible business remained resilient, so investors must distinguish distribution from consumers actually switching.
What are PMI's last eight quarters of revenue and profit?
Quarterly revenue reached US$11,192 million, while operating income reached US$4,530 million. Net income was US$2,817 million and diluted EPS was US$1.80. A US$511 million Canadian impairment explains much of the divergence between operating strength and reported earnings.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 11,192 | 10,146 | 10,362 | 10,845 | 10,140 | 9,301 | 9,706 | 9,911 |
| Operating income | 4,530 | 3,893 | 3,373 | 4,263 | 3,712 | 3,544 | 3,259 | 3,654 |
| Net income | 2,817 | 2,438 | 2,141 | 3,478 | 3,039 | 2,690 | -579 | 3,082 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.80 | 1.56 | 1.37 | 2.23 | 1.95 | 1.72 | -0.38 | 1.97 |
What should I watch in PMI's next results?
PMI is scheduled to report third-quarter results on October 21, 2026. It guides to adjusted EPS of $2.29–$2.34. Investors should compare ZYN consumer purchases with shipments to distributors, because a September 2025 promotion added about 250 million pouches to the earlier period. A weak shipment comparison may therefore reflect an unusually high starting point rather than weakening ordinary demand.