PMI stock forecast
PMI's weighted scenario is 1.68 in October 2029, against today's $201.19. It hinges on whether repeat ZYN and IQOS demand becomes profitable cash growth.
Where could PMI's shares be by 2029?
The forecast’s weighted output is below today’s $201.19 share price, although the scenario range remains wide. It reports weighted prices of 1.62 in October 2027, 1.66 in October 2028 and 1.68 in October 2029, each shown as a -0% return with dividends. By October 2029, the bear case reaches $111.03 and the bull case reaches $234.27, versus today’s $201.19.
The detailed scenario probabilities are 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull, making the base path the central expectation.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 0 % | 125.43 (-34 %) | 118.97 (-35 %) | 111.03 (-35 %) |
| Base | 0 % | 169.42 (-13 %) | 173.27 (-7 %) | 175.90 (-2 %) |
| Bull | 0 % | 198.29 (+2 %) | 219.93 (+16 %) | 234.27 (+27 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1.62 (-0 %) | 1.66 (-0 %) | 1.68 (-0 %) |
What could go wrong for PMI's forecast?
The bear case requires ZYN retail demand to remain weak while Aurora capacity and promotion raise costs. IQOS growth also slows under tax and flavor restrictions, cigarette volume declines, and high debt limits flexibility. Its price falls from $125.43 in 2027 to $111.03 in 2029. The probability is 30% because these risks are material, but PMI still generates cash and guides to operating-income growth.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 12,015 (10,875 / 12,375) | 12,886 (10,935 / 13,720) | 13,750 (10,857 / 15,219) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,560 (1,561 / 1,560) | 1,562 (1,563 / 1,560) | 1,563 (1,565 / 1,559) |
| Dividends per share | 6.40 (6.40 / 6.40) | 6.88 (6.40 / 6.96) | 7.40 (6.40 / 7.56) |
| Price to earnings | 22.00 (18.00 / 25.00) | 21.00 (17.00 / 25.00) | 20.00 (16.00 / 24.00) |
How much cash does PMI really make?
After US$1,569 million of capital spending, free cash flow was US$10,664 million. Deducting stock compensation produced “real free cash flow” of US$10,410 million. The deduction is an owner’s adjustment: shares issued to employees preserve cash but dilute existing ownership. PMI paid US$8,624 million of dividends, leaving limited room for debt reduction and investment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 12,233 | 12,217 | 9,204 | 10,803 | 11,967 |
| − Capital spending | 1,569 | 1,444 | 3,096 | 2,079 | 748 |
| = Free cash flow | 10,664 | 10,773 | 6,108 | 8,724 | 11,219 |
| − Stock pay | 254 | 227 | 212 | 183 | 210 |
| = Real free cash flow | 10,410 | 10,546 | 5,896 | 8,541 | 11,009 |
What does an investor pay for PMI today?
The forward multiple implies about $9.15 of next-twelve-month earnings per share, above PMI’s $8.35–$8.50 adjusted EPS forecast for 2026. The periods and definitions differ, but the price clearly reaches beyond this year’s delivery. PMI’s target of 9–11% annual adjusted EPS growth from 2026 through 2028 provides a foundation, not a guarantee of lasting value.