Imperial stock forecast (IMB.L)
The weighted price is 3063.61 GBp in October 2027 and reaches 3874.76 GBp in October 2029. Imperial must turn pricing and transition execution into durable cash.
Where could Imperial's shares be in October 2027 and October 2029?
The bear case requires legal cigarette volumes and market share to weaken faster than pricing can compensate, especially in Australia, while NGP remains loss-making. Legal and transformation cash costs then constrain distributions, buybacks disappoint and debt stays elevated. The bear path gives 2563.63 GBp in October 2027 and 2069.16 GBp in October 2029. Its 30% probability reflects credible downside, but the need for several pressures to persist despite Imperial’s record of rising adjusted earnings.
The bull case requires stronger share retention, timely transformation savings and NGP progress toward profitability. Better cash generation funds investment and buybacks without stretching leverage, while investors reward a more durable earnings outlook. The bull path gives 3750.35 GBp in October 2027 and 6030.56 GBp in October 2029. Its 20% probability reflects substantial upside, but several unproven improvements must arrive together.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 2563.63 (-4 %) | 2310.99 (-7 %) | 2069.16 (-10 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 3088.90 (+15 %) | 3561.56 (+38 %) | 4095.79 (+64 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 3750.35 (+39 %) | 4803.59 (+82 %) | 6030.56 (+133 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 3063.61 (+14 %) | 3434.80 (+33 %) | 3874.76 (+55 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Imperial?
Base earnings start at £2,576m, close to FY2025 adjusted net income of £2,598m. They rise to £2,624m in the next window and £2,673m in the last. Revenue is broadly stable, beginning at £32,200m and ending at £32,600m. Margin moves from 8.0% to 8.2%, near FY2025’s roughly 8.1%, because guidance allows modest operating gains but interest and tax offset some benefit. Bear earnings fall to £2,424m and then £2,261m. They reach £2,101m in the last window as volume, illicit-market and NGP pressures compress revenue and margin. Bull earnings rise to £2,689m and £2,838m before reaching £2,990m, as pricing holds, savings arrive and NGP losses narrow.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,576 (2,424 / 2,689) | 2,624 (2,261 / 2,838) | 2,673 (2,101 / 2,990) |
| Shares (millions) | 709 (709 / 717) | 663 (665 / 679) | 620 (630 / 645) |
| Dividends per share | 1.68 (1.60 / 1.68) | 1.76 (1.52 / 1.80) | 1.84 (1.52 / 1.93) |
| Price to earnings | 8.50 (7.50 / 10.00) | 9.00 (6.80 / 11.50) | 9.50 (6.20 / 13.00) |
How much cash does Imperial really make?
Cash from operations was £3,627 million in FY2025. After capital spending, leases and interest, free cash flow was £2,692 million. Imperial’s own free-cash-flow measure was £2,749 million because it uses different definitions for capital spending, interest and minority dividends.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,627 | 3,307 | 3,129 | 3,186 | 2,167 |
| − Capital spending | 384 | 371 | 325 | 230 | 200 |
| − Lease payments | 94 | 93 | 92 | 68 | 69 |
| − Interest paid | 457 | 431 | 417 | 366 | 415 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,692 | 2,412 | 2,295 | 2,522 | 1,483 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,657 | 2,366 | 2,264 | 2,493 | 1,458 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves lease payments and some other cash costs out of its calculation.
What does an investor pay today for Imperial?
The P/E compares the share price with earnings, but trailing and forward earnings are not interchangeable. Reported earnings follow accounting rules; adjusted earnings remove items management considers unusual. The Delaware case produced a £312m accounting charge, while Imperial paid £150m in cash during the first half of FY26.