Altria stock forecast
Altria's weighted forecast is $76.03 in October 2027, a +10% return. Altria's result hinges on smoke-free products building profitable repeat demand.
Where could Altria's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is $76.03 in October 2027, a +10% return. It is $74.30 in October 2029, a +21% total return including dividends. The bear case carries a 26% probability. The base and bull cases carry 56% and 18%. October 2029 outcomes range from $49.59 to $111.09.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 26 % | 63.87 (-7 %) | 56.59 (-11 %) | 49.59 (-14 %) |
| Base | 56 % | 77.26 (+12 %) | 75.71 (+16 %) | 73.94 (+21 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 89.77 (+29 %) | 100.25 (+50 %) | 111.09 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 76.03 (+10 %) | 75.15 (+15 %) | 74.30 (+21 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the estimated average value after giving more weight to cases considered more likely.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Altria?
Cigarette pricing, cost savings and settlement outflows will decide the result. The October 29, 2026 results call should show whether on! PLUS expansion became store availability and repeat demand. The planned fourth-quarter flavor expansion must clear authorization; 12-milligram PLUS variants remained under review. Factory consolidation and savings must deliver margins through 2029 without consuming cash needed elsewhere.
How much cash does Altria really make?
Operating cash was $9,290 million in 2025. After $216 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $9,074 million. After another $62 million for stock compensation, stricter “real” free cash flow was $9,012 million. Stock compensation is not an immediate cash payment, but it gives employees a claim on ownership. The result was close to adjusted net income of $9,148 million, supporting the quality of those earnings.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,290 | 8,753 | 9,287 | 8,256 | 8,405 |
| − Capital spending | 216 | 142 | 196 | 205 | 169 |
| = Free cash flow | 9,074 | 8,611 | 9,091 | 8,051 | 8,236 |
| − Stock pay | 62 | 56 | 58 | 50 | 40 |
| = Real free cash flow | 9,012 | 8,555 | 9,033 | 8,001 | 8,196 |
What this means. The company's free cash flow differs from ours because it adds back some cash items in some years and subtracts others in different years.
What does an investor pay for Altria today?
Revenue falls while the company’s real free-cash-flow margin rises, showing that pricing and cost control have preserved cash so far. The company’s free-cash-flow yield is 7.4%, beside a 6.1% dividend yield. A 15.4x trailing P/E and 12.4x forward P/E leave cash durability as the central test.
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 15.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.4% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 6.1% |
What this means. Price to book is not meaningful because the company owes more than it owns, making its book value negative.