PMI dividend
PMI pays $1.60 per quarter, or $6.40 per share annually in the forecast. In 2025, PMI paid US$8,624 million of dividends against US$10,664 million of free cash flow.
How much does PMI pay in dividends?
Dividends begin at $6.40 per share because PMI declared a quarterly rate of $1.60 in September 2026. The base case raises the annual amount to $6.88 in 2028 and $7.40 in 2029. The bear case freezes it at $6.40, while the bull case reaches $6.96 and $7.56. PMI has raised its dividend every year since 2008, but dividends already absorbed 80.9% of free cash flow in 2025.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 7.26 | 4.52 | 5.02 | 5.81 | 5.83 |
| Real free cash flow per share | 6.68 | 6.78 | 3.80 | 5.50 | 7.06 |
| Free cash flow per share | 6.84 | 6.92 | 3.93 | 5.62 | 7.20 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 5.54 | 5.27 | 5.13 | 5.03 | 4.86 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 1.03 | 1.34 | 0.15 | 1.48 | |
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 1.52 |
Is PMI's dividend covered by its cash?
After US$1,569 million of capital spending, free cash flow was US$10,664 million. Deducting stock compensation produced “real free cash flow” of US$10,410 million. The deduction is an owner’s adjustment: shares issued to employees preserve cash but dilute existing ownership. PMI paid US$8,624 million of dividends, leaving limited room for debt reduction and investment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 10,664 | 10,773 | 6,108 | 8,724 | 11,219 |
| − Paid to minority owners | 430 | 494 | 497 | 472 | 560 |
| − Dividends paid | 8,624 | 8,197 | 7,964 | 7,812 | 7,580 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 209 | 775 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 1,610 | 2,082 | 231 | 2,304 | |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 80.9% | 76.1% | 130.4% | 91.9% | 74.5% |
What could change PMI's dividend?
By October 2029, the decisive evidence will be cash allocation: whether PMI can fund capital spending and rising dividends while reducing debt. A return to buybacks would support the bull case; persistent zero buybacks and a frozen dividend would support the bear case.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 12,015 (10,875 / 12,375) | 12,886 (10,935 / 13,720) | 13,750 (10,857 / 15,219) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,560 (1,561 / 1,560) | 1,562 (1,563 / 1,560) | 1,563 (1,565 / 1,559) |
| Dividends per share | 6.40 (6.40 / 6.40) | 6.88 (6.40 / 6.96) | 7.40 (6.40 / 7.56) |
| Price to earnings | 22.00 (18.00 / 25.00) | 21.00 (17.00 / 25.00) | 20.00 (16.00 / 24.00) |
What is PMI's dividend yield today?
Cash flow supplies the harder test. PMI generated $12.233 billion from operations in 2025 and spent $1.569 billion on capital expenditure. It paid $8.6 billion in dividends. Inventory and excise-tax timing also affected cash, so the dividend needs to be tested against sustained investment in IQOS and ZYN.