onsemi stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The probability-weighted price is $55.40 by October 2029. It hinges on profitable factory recovery and execution of the cash-funded Synaptics deal.
Where could onsemi's shares be by October 2029?
ON’s probability-weighted forecast remains below today’s price at every date. At October 2027, the weighted price is $31.56, a 58% loss including dividends. At October 2028, it is $45.29, a 40% loss. At October 2029, it is $55.40, a 27% loss. Today’s price is $75.62.
The 2029 range is $17.62 in the bear case and $120.66 in the bull case. The bear weight is 35% and the base weight is 50%. The bull case gets 15%, because it requires more successful execution than the base case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 9.25 (-88 %) | 11.20 (-85 %) | 17.62 (-77 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 36.61 (-52 %) | 53.47 (-29 %) | 62.27 (-18 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 66.79 (-12 %) | 97.57 (+29 %) | 120.66 (+60 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 31.56 (-58 %) | 45.29 (-40 %) | 55.40 (-27 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for onsemi?
The bear case starts with $6,000 million of revenue and a 16% margin. It reaches $6,500 million and a 20% margin by 2029. The bull case starts at $7,200 million and a 24% margin, reaching $9,500 million and a 29% margin. The base path reflects the five-year average margin, while the alternatives reflect either renewed weakness or stronger AI, automotive, industrial, and SiC execution.
The view would move toward the bull case if utilization rose faster during 2027–2028, AI data-center revenue reached its 2026 target and doubled again, and SiC output became profitable at customer volumes. Debt reduction alongside sustained repurchases after the Synaptics closing would provide the clearest confirmation.
How much cash does onsemi really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow after capital spending. onsemi’s free cash flow improved mainly because investment in equipment fell sharply. That supports liquidity today, but it may also mean the company is postponing capacity, technology conversion, or factory transfers.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,759.8 | 1,906.4 | 1,977.5 | 2,633.1 | 1,782.0 |
| Of which, freed from working capital | 493.0 | ||||
| Of which, tied up in working capital | 382.0 | 862.7 | 250.4 | 58.9 | |
| − Capital spending | 341.2 | 694.0 | 1,539.1 | 1,036.0 | 492.0 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,418.6 | 1,212.4 | 438.4 | 1,597.1 | 1,290.0 |
| − Stock pay | 144.3 | 136.1 | 121.1 | 100.8 | 101.3 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,274.3 | 1,076.3 | 317.3 | 1,496.3 | 1,188.7 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it treats deposits for property purchases differently: its number is 36.5 lower in 2023 but 31.0 higher in 2022 and 47.4 higher in 2021.
What does an investor pay today for onsemi?
| Today (Oct 20, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 75.62 |
| Market value (calculated) | 29,440.3 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 30,058.5 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 48.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.8% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is an estimate rather than a result the company has already earned.