Analog Devices stock forecast
Analog Devices' weighted price is $496.19 in October 2029, a 26% gain, with 55% probability on the base case. It hinges on industrial and data-center demand growing as replenishment fades.
Where could Analog Devices' shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $387.33 in October 2027, a 3% loss including dividends. It rises to $443.44 in October 2028, a 12% gain. By October 2029, it reaches $496.19, a 26% gain. The three-year range runs from $288.18 to $763.01. Today’s price is $406.25. The base case has the highest probability at 55%. The bear case has 25%, and the bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 258.95 (-35 %) | 265.69 (-32 %) | 288.18 (-26 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 411.95 (+3 %) | 455.95 (+15 %) | 493.71 (+25 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 480.10 (+19 %) | 631.23 (+58 %) | 763.01 (+92 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 387.33 (-3 %) | 443.44 (+12 %) | 496.19 (+26 %) |
What has to go right for Analog Devices, and what could go wrong?
The base revenue path assumes industrial and data-center demand grow as replenishment fades. That follows recent evidence: industrial revenue grew 53% year over year, while communications grew 84%. The bear case assumes an initial revenue decline and slower recovery; the bull case assumes sustained AI infrastructure and industrial content growth.
The bear case requires a data-center pause and renewed customer inventory digestion. Lower shipments would expose fixed factory costs, weaken cash generation and compress the semiconductor multiple. It gives $258.95 in October 2027 and $288.18 in October 2029, including dividends. Its 25% probability reflects real inventory risk, but ADI’s design-ins and cash generation argue against making it the central path.
How much cash does Analog Devices really make?
Stock compensation supplies the final adjustment. ADI adds it back because employees receive equity rather than cash, but shareholders bear dilution unless repurchases offset the issuance. ADI returned 96% of its company-defined free cash flow to shareholders in fiscal 2025. The useful cash measure is therefore operating cash after factory investment and a considered allowance for stock-based dilution.
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,812,202 | 3,852,529 | 4,817,634 | 4,475,402 | 2,735,069 |
| − Capital spending | 533,552 | 730,463 | 1,261,463 | 699,308 | 343,676 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,278,650 | 3,122,066 | 3,556,171 | 3,776,094 | 2,391,393 |
| − Stock pay | 321,560 | 262,710 | 299,823 | 323,487 | 243,611 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,957,090 | 2,859,356 | 3,256,348 | 3,452,607 | 2,147,782 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 35.9% | 30.3% | 26.5% | 28.7% | 29.3% |
What does an investor pay today for Analog Devices' earnings and cash?
The trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, says how much investors pay for one dollar of annual profit. ADI’s reported diluted EPS was $2.74 in fiscal Q3 2026, while adjusted EPS was $3.45. Adjusted EPS removes selected acquisition costs, transaction costs, special charges and taxes. The missing costs were real, even when amortization represented an earlier cash payment rather than new cash leaving the company.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 406.25 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 48.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.1% |