TI stock forecast
TI's probability-weighted price reaches $300.86 in October 2027, including dividends. It hinges on factory loading.
Where could TI's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to moderate weighted upside, but a wide distribution of outcomes. The probability-weighted price reaches $300.86 in October 2027, including dividends, for a 9% return from today’s $280.56. It rises to $336.72 in October 2028, a 24% return, and $372.93 in October 2029, a 40% return.
By October 2029, the bear case gives $154.60, while the bull case gives $624.53. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull, so the central recovery is more likely than either extreme.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 148.86 (-45 %) | 143.01 (-45 %) | 154.60 (-39 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 334.39 (+21 %) | 360.38 (+33 %) | 380.67 (+43 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 398.67 (+44 %) | 513.80 (+88 %) | 624.53 (+130 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 300.86 (+9 %) | 336.72 (+24 %) | 372.93 (+40 %) |
What has to go right for TI, and what could go wrong?
The base assumes recovery from the $9,458 million trailing proxy. Q2 2026 revenue grew 23% year over year, while Analog grew 26% and Embedded Processing grew 16%. The bear case assumes weaker demand and underused factories. The bull case requires broad orders, stronger loading and earned Silicon Labs savings.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 13,300 (9,100 / 13,900) | 14,850 (10,200 / 16,400) | 16,275 (11,800 / 19,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 913 (917 / 908) | 914 (920 / 904) | 914 (923 / 901) |
| Dividends per share | 6.08 (6.08 / 6.08) | 6.38 (6.08 / 6.75) | 6.70 (5.50 / 7.49) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 24.00 (17.00 / 27.00) | 23.00 (15.00 / 29.00) | 22.00 (14.00 / 30.00) |
| Net debt | 13,803 (18,224 / 13,384) | 12,274 (21,462 / 10,968) | 9,962 (22,520 / 7,110) |
How much cash does TI really make?
Profit is an accounting result; free cash flow is what remains after investment. TI generated $7,153 million from operations in 2025. Capital spending was $4,550 million, leaving ordinary free cash flow of $2,603 million.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,153 | 6,318 | 6,420 | 8,720 | 8,756 |
| − Capital spending | 4,550 | 4,820 | 5,071 | 2,797 | 2,462 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,603 | 1,498 | 1,349 | 5,923 | 6,294 |
| − Stock pay | 419 | 387 | 362 | 289 | 230 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,184 | 1,111 | 987 | 5,634 | 6,064 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 14.7% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 29.6% | 34.3% |
What does an investor pay for TI today?
The trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, compares the share price with earnings per share from the past year. The forward P/E uses estimated earnings for the next year. TI’s 42.7x trailing P/E implies earnings of about $6.57 per share, while its 27.3x forward P/E implies about $10.28. The price has not changed; the expected earnings denominator has. Like judging a restaurant while it is temporarily closed, the valuation looks reasonable only if customers return.