NRG earnings: date, guidance and results
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: NRG's next results are expected on November 5, 2026. Watch whether acquired EBITDA becomes sustained cash after investment.
What has NRG guided for 2026?
NRG could reach $225.96 by October 2029 if cash conversion, debt reduction and project execution hold. Management’s August 4, 2026 guidance calls for adjusted EBITDA of $5,325–$5,825 million in 2026. It also calls for adjusted EPS of $7.90–$9.90. Its own free cash flow forecast is $2,800–$3,300 million before growth investments, not cash left after construction and expansion. The Texas data-center project requires $721 million in 2026; total investment is expected to reach $3.2 billion.
| Period guided | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | 2026 | 5,325 | 5,825 | August 4, 2026 |
| Adjusted EPS | 2026 | 7.90 | 9.90 | August 4, 2026 |
| Free Cash Flow before Growth Investments (FCFbG) | 2026 | 2,800 | 3,300 | August 4, 2026 |
| Annualized dividend per common share | 2026 | 1.90 | 1.90 | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 capital deployment | 2026 | 700 | 700 | August 4, 2026 |
| Texas new build capex | 2026 | 620 | 620 | August 4, 2026 |
What this means. The table includes a planned project investment for 2027 even though most of the guidance is for 2026.
Has NRG kept its past promises?
The promise record is mixed: recent annual EBITDA results were modestly above their original ceilings, while earlier weather, trading and cash-timing problems caused misses.
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted EBITDA | 4 years | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Annual common stock dividend | 5 years | 0 | 5 | 0 |
What do NRG's last eight quarters show?
Cash improved in June, but March had been negative and the first half remained weaker than the prior-year period. The eight-quarter view is therefore more revealing than annualizing one strong quarter. The specialist will watch whether acquired EBITDA becomes sustained cash after investment, whether adjusted earnings per share recover, and whether debt begins to fall.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 7,481 | 10,256 | 7,753 | 7,635 | 6,740 | 8,585 | 6,819 | 7,223 |
| Gross margin | 28.0% | 14.7% | 20.5% | 20.1% | 19.6% | 24.0% | 30.6% | 2.3% |
| Operating income | 976 | 328 | 297 | 414 | 0 | 1,134 | 954 | -812 |
| Net income | 506 | 125 | 66 | 152 | -104 | 750 | 643 | -767 |
| EPS, diluted | 2.31 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.69 | -0.62 | 3.61 | 3.01 | -3.79 |
| = Free cash flow | 779 | -486 | -175 | 230 | 73 | 638 | 766 | -83 |
What this means. Free cash flow can be negative even when cash from operations is positive because the company spent more on equipment and buildings than its daily business brought in.
What should I watch in NRG's next results?
The decisive evidence will be whether NRG converts development promises and existing assets into dependable cash.
Finally, legal settlements must be tracked as cash demands. An accounting accrual records an estimated expense, but payment may arrive later and compete directly with construction. NRG’s funding question will be answered by approvals, operating performance and cash left after every obligation—not by adjusted earnings alone.