Netflix stock forecast
Netflix's weighted forecast is $65.87 in October 2027 and $90.74 in October 2029. It hinges on advertising monetization, retention and disciplined content spending.
Where could Netflix's shares be?
The weighted forecast is $65.87 in October 2027 and $90.74 in October 2029. It assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to the base case and 20% to the bull case. The forecast expects a weak first year followed by gains.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 43.19 (-39 %) | 38.65 (-45 %) | 34.96 (-50 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 68.58 (-2 %) | 82.11 (+17 %) | 97.14 (+38 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 86.78 (+23 %) | 111.83 (+59 %) | 142.87 (+103 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 65.87 (-6 %) | 77.19 (+10 %) | 90.74 (+29 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Netflix?
The bear case requires advertising to miss its ramp while live and other content costs fail to produce lasting retention. Earnings fall, margins compress and the multiple declines. The price is $43.19 in October 2027. It reaches $34.96 by October 2029.
The bull case reaches $86.78 first and $142.87 last. Its 20% probability reflects the need for faster ad monetization, durable event-driven retention and stronger margins at the same time. Netflix reports that live events produced six of its ten biggest new-member sign-up days, but the material does not establish lasting retention or title-level returns.
How much cash does Netflix really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow less purchases of property and equipment. It reached 9,461,053 in 2025, or 20.9% of revenue. Subtracting stock-based compensation produces an analytical “real free cash flow” of 9,092,604, though that adjustment is not Netflix’s own cash-flow definition.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 9,461,053 | 6,921,826 | 6,925,749 | 1,618,528 | -131,975 |
| − Stock pay | 368,449 | 272,588 | 339,368 | 575,452 | 403,220 |
| = Real free cash flow | 9,092,604 | 6,649,238 | 6,586,381 | 1,043,076 | -535,195 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.9% | 17.7% | 20.5% | 5.1% | -0.4% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.1% | 17.0% | 19.5% | 3.3% | -1.8% |
What does an investor pay for Netflix?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, shows how much investors pay for each dollar of annual profit. The trailing version uses the last twelve months; the forward version uses the next twelve months’ expected profit. The forward multiple is lower because expectations assume earnings will rise. But the share price can still fall if earnings miss or investors decide the multiple is too generous.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 70.30 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 18.5x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.1% |