Apple stock forecast
Apple's weighted scenario is $315.27 in October 2027, a 6% loss with dividends included. It hinges on profitable AI and Services growth, margins and continued buybacks.
Where could Apple's shares be by October 2029?
Bear probability is 25%; base is 55%. Bull probability is 20%. iPhone Duo preorders begin October 16 and availability begins October 23. Another market expansion is scheduled for October 30. Completed deliveries, cancellations and returns matter more than wait times alone. Apple promised to expand Siri AI beyond English during October; repeated use and upgrade behavior will show whether it matters. The view improves if supply constraints ease, premium upgrades hold and Services growth supports cash generation. It weakens if memory costs rise, refunds fade and demand slows. Apple’s installed base creates value only if AI and Services turn it into durable cash growth.
It is $315.38 in October 2028. The October 2029 weighted price is $313.03, also a 6% loss with dividends. The last-date range runs from $193.85 in the bear case to $453.79 in the bull case. Today’s supplied price is $336.64.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 257.31 (-23 %) | 225.22 (-32 %) | 193.85 (-41 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 324.95 (-3 %) | 321.13 (-4 %) | 316.01 (-5 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 361.06 (+8 %) | 412.29 (+23 %) | 453.79 (+36 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 315.27 (-6 %) | 315.38 (-6 %) | 313.03 (-6 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Apple?
Bear earnings fall from $133,280 million to $129,850 million, then reach $126,225 million as shortages, memory costs and weaker operating leverage erode margins. Bull earnings rise from $144,200 million to $162,400 million, then reach $181,500 million if supply improves and AI and Services lift upgrades.
How much cash does Apple really make?
Free cash flow is cash from operations after spending on long-term assets. Apple generated $111,482 million from operations in 2025. After capital spending, free cash flow was $98,767 million, or 23.7% of revenue. That was below the prior year despite higher earnings, so one year’s cash conversion needs explanation.
Stock compensation is not an immediate cash payment, so Apple adds it back in operating cash flow. But it gives employees claims on the business. Deducting $12,863 million of stock pay leaves “real free cash flow” of $85,904 million, or 20.6% of revenue. That is an analytical measure, not Apple’s reported one, and it should not be deducted twice.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 111,482 | 118,254 | 110,543 | 122,151 | 104,038 |
| − Capital spending | 12,715 | 9,447 | 10,959 | 10,708 | 11,085 |
| = Free cash flow | 98,767 | 108,807 | 99,584 | 111,443 | 92,953 |
| − Stock pay | 12,863 | 11,688 | 10,833 | 9,038 | 7,906 |
| = Real free cash flow | 85,904 | 97,119 | 88,751 | 102,405 | 85,047 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.6% | 24.8% | 23.2% | 26.0% | 23.2% |
What does an investor pay for Apple today?
| Today (Oct 11, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 336.64 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 38.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 35.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.0% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.7% |