Disney stock forecast
Disney’s probability-weighted price is $113.86 in October 2027, with 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull. It hinges on streaming profits and Experiences investment producing durable cash returns.
Where could Disney’s shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted price is $113.86 in October 2027, including dividends, a 6% return from $108.49. It rises to $120.70 in October 2028, a 14% return, and $126.81 in October 2029, a 21% return. The three-year range runs from $87.73 in the bear case to $183.89 in the bull case. The weighting is 30% bear, 50% base and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 98.69 (-8 %) | 91.88 (-13 %) | 87.73 (-15 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 115.12 (+7 %) | 122.65 (+16 %) | 127.44 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 133.47 (+24 %) | 159.06 (+50 %) | 183.89 (+74 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 113.86 (+6 %) | 120.70 (+14 %) | 126.81 (+21 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Disney?
Disney’s weighted forecast points to higher prices, but the upside hinges on streaming profits and Experiences investment producing durable cash returns.
How much cash does Disney really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow less capital spending. Disney generated $18,101 million from operations and spent $8,024 million on capital assets in FY2025, leaving $10,077 million of free cash flow. The recovery occurred while spending on physical businesses increased, which makes it more meaningful than a recovery produced only by cutting investment.
Stock compensation creates another owner cost. Disney recorded $1,363 million of stock-based compensation in FY2025. Because shares, rather than cash, were used to pay employees, accounting adds the expense back to operating cash flow. Shareholders still bear dilution or the cost of repurchasing shares. Subtracting it produces an analytical “real free cash flow” measure.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 18,101 | 13,971 | 9,866 | 6,002 | 5,566 |
| − Capital spending | 8,024 | 5,412 | 4,969 | 4,943 | 3,578 |
| = Free cash flow | 10,077 | 8,559 | 4,897 | 1,059 | 1,988 |
| − Stock pay | 1,363 | 1,366 | 1,143 | 977 | 600 |
| = Real free cash flow | 8,714 | 7,193 | 3,754 | 82 | 1,388 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 9.2% | 7.9% | 4.2% | 0.1% | 2.1% |
What does an investor pay for Disney today?
The P/E ratio shows how much investors pay for one dollar of earnings. Disney traded at 22.4x trailing earnings and 14.5x forward earnings. The lower forward multiple assumes earnings will improve, but accounting can move the denominator. An impairment reduces the recorded value of an asset, while acquisition-related amortization spreads the cost of purchased rights over time. Neither measure alone describes the cash produced this year.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 108.49 |
| Market value (calculated) | 187,328.261998 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 228,184.261998 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.5x |