Mosaic earnings: date, guidance and what to watch
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Mosaic reports its next results on November 3, 2026. Watch whether Brazilian collections and sharply lower capital spending reduce borrowing after investment and distributions.
What has Mosaic guided for 2026?
Mosaic’s share price could rise substantially by October 2029, but only if sulfur supply, plant utilization, Brazilian collections and cash generation recover. Management expects 9.0 million tonnes of potash production and $1.2 billion of capital expenditure for full-year 2026, while phosphate production guidance is withdrawn. For the third quarter of 2026, it guides to 1.1–1.4 million tonnes of phosphate sales and 2.0–2.2 million tonnes of potash sales. It also guides to $350 million of 2026 cash spending on asset-retirement obligations and environmental reserves.
| the period guided | low | high | the date it was given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potash Production Volumes - million tonnes | Full Year 2026 | 9.0 | 9.0 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Total Capital Expenditures - billions $ | Full Year 2026 | 1.2 | 1.2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Phosphate Sales Volumes - million tonnes | Third Quarter 2026 | 1.1 | 1.4 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| DAP FOB Plant Prices - $ per tonne | Third Quarter 2026 | 820 | 840 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| Potash Sales Volumes - million tonnes | Third Quarter 2026 | 2.0 | 2.2 | Aug 4, 2026 |
| MOP FOB Mine Prices - $ per tonne | Third Quarter 2026 | 270 | 290 | Aug 4, 2026 |
What this means. For Mosaic Fertilizantes, the blank low end means adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization are expected to be below 60 million dollars, not up to 60 million dollars.
Has Mosaic kept its past promises?
The company did deliver a specific cost promise. It targeted $150 million of annualized reductions by the end of 2025, reported that target achieved, and expanded the ambition to $250 million by the end of 2026. “Annualized” means a projected yearly savings rate, not necessarily cash saved during the year. The broader goal also includes “value capture,” such as operating and supply-chain improvements.
| What management forecast | Checked | Above | Within | Below |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phosphate Sales Volumes | 7 quarters | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| DAP FOB Plant Prices | 7 quarters | 3 | 3 | 1 |
| Potash Sales Volumes | 7 quarters | 0 | 6 | 1 |
| MOP FOB Mine Prices | 7 quarters | 2 | 3 | 2 |
What this means. The summary says three of five promises were kept, but the table lists only four forecast types, so it is unclear what the other promise is.
What is Mosaic’s revenue and profit trend?
The latest quarters do not yet show steady expansion. Revenue fell by June 2026 from the same quarter a year earlier, and destination prices can also reflect freight, product grade and customer mix. The five-year results table gives the broad financial shape; the operating table separates prices, sales tonnes and production volumes.
Mosaic’s margins improved in 2025, but reported profit overstated the improvement in its fertilizer operations.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,824.1 | 2,998.0 | 2,973.7 | 3,452.1 | 3,005.7 | 2,620.9 | 2,815.9 | 2,810.9 |
| Gross margin | 7.6% | 7.9% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 17.3% | 18.6% | 10.7% | 14.8% |
| Operating income | -35.5 | -372.9 | -101.2 | 339.8 | 244.4 | 338.5 | 99.9 | 115.4 |
| Net income | -272.8 | -257.6 | -519.5 | 411.4 | 410.7 | 238.1 | 169.0 | 122.2 |
| EPS, diluted | -0.86 | -0.81 | -1.64 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 0.75 | 0.53 | 0.38 |
What this means. Free cash flow is negative when the cash from daily business is less than the money spent on equipment and buildings.
What should you watch in Mosaic’s next results?
Mosaic plans to report third-quarter results on November 3, 2026, followed by its call on November 4. Investors should compare phosphate and potash deliveries with August guidance, then examine cash, inventory and capital spending. Better earnings with another inventory build would mean something different from better earnings supported by customer collections.