Mercedes-Benz earnings: guidance and results
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Mercedes-Benz reported Q3 2026 revenue of €30.7 billion, down from €32.1 billion, while reported operating income rose to €1.8 billion and adjusted group EBIT fell 15%. Mercedes-Benz’s next release should show whether inventory releases improve cash flow without sacrificing pricing.
What has Mercedes-Benz guided for 2026?
Management expects 2026 Cars adjusted return on sales of 2%–3%, Cars xEV share of 23%–25%, Vans adjusted return on sales of 8%–10% and Financial Services adjusted return on equity of 12%–14%. Its 2025 Cars result was 5.0% against an original 6%–8% range; Cars missed its original margin range twice in four years.
Mercedes expects thin profits from its car business in 2026, even after lowering its ambition. On 27 October, management cut its Cars forecast for the year ending December 2026. It lowered adjusted return on sales from 3%–5% to 2%–3%.
| Period | Low | High | Given on | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes-Benz Cars, Share of electrified vehicles (xEV) | Year to Dec 2026 | 23.0% | 25.0% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Mercedes-Benz Cars, Adjusted return on sales | Year to Dec 2026 | 2.0% | 3.0% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Mercedes-Benz Vans, Adjusted return on sales | Year to Dec 2026 | 8.0% | 10.0% | Oct 28, 2026 |
| Mercedes-Benz Financial Services, Adjusted return on equity | Year to Dec 2026 | 12.0% | 14.0% | Oct 28, 2026 |
What this means. Several rows have no numerical low or high because Mercedes-Benz only says whether the result should be above, below, or about the same as last year.
Has Mercedes-Benz kept its past promises?
Management’s record is mixed. Cars missed its original margin range twice in the four years reviewed, while Vans generally produced cautious forecasts and Financial Services missed its return target once. In 2025, Cars achieved a 5.0% adjusted margin against an original 6%–8% range; tariffs contributed, but weaker sales and pricing also mattered.
How have Mercedes-Benz revenue and profit trended?
Revenue was €30.7 billion in Q3 2026, down from €32.1 billion a year earlier. Reported operating income rose from €750 million to €1.8 billion. But adjusted group EBIT fell 15% to €1.8 billion because the comparison included fewer adverse adjustments than the previous year.
| Sep 2026 | Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 30,698 | 32,061 | 31,602 | 33,690 | 32,147 | 33,153 | 33,224 | 38,450 |
| Gross margin | 17.3% | 19.0% | 17.3% | 15.8% | 15.6% | 16.4% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| Operating income | 1,773 | 1,547 | 1,904 | 1,508 | 750 | 1,273 | 2,289 | 3,182 |
| Net income | 1,518 | 1,065 | 1,418 | 1,375 | 1,173 | 915 | 1,678 | 2,484 |
| EPS, diluted | 1.64 | 1.14 | 1.49 | 1.43 | 1.22 | 0.95 | 1.74 | 2.57 |
What this means. The sales and operating profit include the finance business, but the cash flow and spending figures leave it out, so these rows are not directly comparable.
What should investors watch in Mercedes-Benz’s next release?
The first checkpoint is fourth-quarter 2026 results. Management expects more vehicles to reach customers and cash flow to improve from the weak third quarter. Investors should compare inventory releases with cash flow and pricing: a discounted sale can release cash while producing less profit than planned.