Geely stock forecast
Geely's weighted forecast is HK$31.71 in October 2027. Geely's investment turns on durable profit per vehicle, not volume alone.
Where could Geely's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is HK$31.71 in October 2027, a 116% return including dividends. It is HK$47.43 in October 2029, a 232% return. The bear case has 30% probability. The base case has 55%, and the bull case 15%. The 2029 range is HK$20.26 to HK$92.88.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 20.74 (+42 %) | 20.26 (+42 %) | 20.26 (+45 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 32.85 (+124 %) | 41.20 (+186 %) | 49.86 (+251 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 49.47 (+236 %) | 69.38 (+376 %) | 92.88 (+542 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 31.71 (+116 %) | 39.14 (+171 %) | 47.43 (+232 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is a probability-based average of the three cases, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right for Geely?
The bear case begins with weak domestic demand and damaging discounts. Exports fail to offset support costs, while integration savings remain unproven. Its price is 20.74 in October 2027 and 20.26 in October 2029. The probability is 30% because domestic sales already fell 22.6%, and September sales required a much stronger finish to meet the annual target.
The bull case assumes successful launches, profitable exports and recurring savings from shared technology, procurement and retail. Higher volumes then support margins and a higher multiple. Its price is 49.47 in October 2027 and 92.88 in October 2029. The probability is 15% because every major upside assumption must hold, including local returns after overseas costs.
How much cash does Geely really make?
Free cash flow means cash left after selected investment and financing payments. Geely’s narrow measure deducts physical capital spending, leases and interest, then subtracts stock pay to show a more economic residual. Stock compensation does not require immediate cash, but it gives employees shares that dilute other owners.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 47,274.244 | 36,866.834 | 22,342.369 | 16,018.395 | 15,348.343 |
| − Capital spending | 4,127.869 | 4,194.036 | 5,711.295 | 3,515.965 | 2,833.372 |
| = Free cash flow | 41,023.203 | 30,537.538 | 15,405.682 | 11,729.122 | 12,284.034 |
| − Stock pay | 1,181.265 | 1,752.726 | 646.336 | 1,488.91 | 1,212.699 |
| = Real free cash flow | 39,841.938 | 28,784.812 | 14,759.346 | 10,240.212 | 11,071.335 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 11.5% | 10.4% |
What this means. The cash figures leave out Genius AFC's own cash because the company accounts for that joint venture separately, so they do not show all the cash connected to the business.
What does an investor pay for Geely today?
A price-to-earnings ratio compares the share price with forecast earnings per share. Because the denominator concerns the next twelve months, it is an expectation rather than a cash payment. Price to book compares the share price with accounting equity, while dividend yield measures the cash actually paid to shareholders.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 15.01 |
| Market value (calculated) | 161,896.090276 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 96,130.460264 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 4.9x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.5x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 28.9% |