BYD stock forecast: scenarios through 2029
BYD's weighted forecast reaches HKD97.03 in October 2027. It hinges on overseas growth becoming profitable, earnings recovering and cash generation returning.
Where could BYD's shares be by October 2029?
The probability-weighted price is HKD97.03 in October 2027, a 33% total return including dividends. It rises to HKD122.44 in October 2028, a 69% return. By October 2029, it reaches HKD156.72, a 117% return.
BYD’s weighted forecast reaches HKD97.03 in October 2027 if overseas growth becomes profitable, earnings recover and cash generation returns. That outcome implies a +33% return including dividends. The forecast reaches HKD156.72 in October 2029, implying +117% including dividends. Bear, base and bull probabilities are 30%, 50% and 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 53.64 (-26 %) | 45.51 (-37 %) | 46.45 (-35 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 102.27 (+41 %) | 125.37 (+73 %) | 152.08 (+111 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 149.01 (+105 %) | 230.52 (+217 %) | 333.74 (+361 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 97.03 (+33 %) | 122.44 (+69 %) | 156.72 (+117 %) |
What has to go right for BYD's forecast?
EBITDA is the main operating swing. The base row starts at CNY140,833m and reaches CNY171,875m. The analyst compilation expects net profit of CNY38,873m and CNY49,310.65m in its next two forecast years, supporting a recovery. The bear row starts at CNY110,083m and ends at CNY116,750m because recent operating income fell and the latest half-year remained weaker. The bull row starts at CNY157,708m and reaches CNY236,667m, requiring overseas revenue growth to become profitable local demand; overseas revenue rose from CNY221,884.773m to CNY310,740.988m.
How much cash does BYD really make?
Capital spending reached RMB156,807.853 million. Free cash flow was negative RMB101,980.807 million after that investment, and “real free cash flow” was negative RMB102,892.788 million after treating stock compensation as an economic cost. BYD does not report that last subtotal; stock pay transfers value through ownership rather than using current cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 59,135.544 | 133,453.873 | 169,725.025 | 140,837.657 | 65,466.682 |
| − Capital spending | 156,807.853 | 97,359.768 | 122,093.509 | 97,456.862 | 37,343.609 |
| = Free cash flow | -101,980.807 | 32,900.018 | 45,701.088 | 41,479.608 | 25,842.388 |
| − Stock pay | 911.981 | 400.404 | 872.189 | 591.309 | 116.389 |
| = Real free cash flow | -102,892.788 | 32,499.614 | 44,828.899 | 40,888.299 | 25,725.999 |
What does an investor pay for BYD today?
P/E means share price divided by forecast profit per share. At HK$73.25, BYD trades at 11.2 times expected earnings, implying about HK$6.54 of profit per share over the next twelve months. That profit is not a payment to the investor; it is an estimate of what BYD may earn. If price cuts reduce profit, the same share price produces a higher P/E.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 73.25 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.2x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -17.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -18.1% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yield means the company used more cash than it generated during the latest year.