Lilly dividend: payout, cash cover and yield
Lilly declared a $1.73 quarterly dividend for the first three quarters of 2026, and its base-case forecast keeps the annual dividend at $6.92 in FY2026 before it rises. Cash coverage was tight in 2025: Lilly returned $9.492 billion to shareholders, or 113.7% of real free cash flow, so dividends and buybacks exceeded that year's real free cash flow.
How much does Lilly pay in dividends?
The dividend grows steadily but below its recent pace in the base case. It remains $6.92 in FY2026, then reaches $7.61, $8.37, and $9.20. The bear case slows to $7.71 by FY2029, while the bull case reaches $10.53. Lilly declared a $1.73 quarterly dividend for the first three quarters of 2026, implying the forecast annual rate. The recent record includes a seventh consecutive 15% increase, but it is not future guidance.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 65,179 | 45,043 | 34,124 | 28,541.4 | 28,318.4 |
| EPS, diluted | 22.95 | 11.71 | 5.80 | 6.90 | 6.12 |
| Dividend per share | 6.23 | 5.40 | 4.69 | 4.07 | 3.53 |
Is Lilly's dividend covered by its cash?
Dividends and buybacks kept growing. In 2025, Lilly returned $9.492 billion to shareholders, equal to 113.7% of real free cash flow. The gap can be filled with existing cash or borrowing, but it increases the claims on future earnings. Lilly raised $12.389 billion more long-term debt than it repaid that year.
Stock compensation conserved cash but transferred value to employees through shares. Deducting the $626 million expense leaves analytical free cash flow of $8,346 million. Finally, Lilly’s recasting of certain research milestone payments from operating to investing cash flow changed presentation, not total cash.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 8,346 | 3,114 | 163 | 5,360.3 | 5,713.3 |
| Dividends paid | 5,384 | 4,680 | 4,069 | 3,535.8 | 3,086.8 |
| Shares bought back | 4,108 | 2,500 | 750 | 1,500.0 | 1,250.0 |
| Debt raised minus debt repaid (calculated) | 12,389 | 10,753 | 3,959 | -1,560.0 | 505.4 |
| Returned to shareholders, share of real free cash flow (calculated) | 113.7% | 230.6% | 2956.4% | 93.9% | 75.9% |
What could change Lilly's dividend?
The forecast would move toward the bear case if coverage limits and rebates reduce realized prices during 2027–2029. Evidence of weaker tirzepatide starts, shorter treatment duration, or stronger competition would reduce both growth and the P/E.
| FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 32.0 % (29.0 % / 35.0 %) | 19.0 % (10.0 % / 25.0 %) | 16.0 % (4.0 % / 23.0 %) | 13.0 % (0.0 % / 20.0 %) |
| Buybacks | 7,000 (7,000 / 7,000) | 7,500 (2,500 / 9,000) | 8,500 (2,000 / 11,000) | 9,500 (2,000 / 13,000) |
| Dividend per share | 6.92 (6.92 / 6.92) | 7.61 (7.27 / 7.96) | 8.37 (7.49 / 9.16) | 9.20 (7.71 / 10.53) |