AbbVie stock forecast
AbbVie's probability-weighted price is $283.21 in October 2027 and $313.79 in October 2029, a 23% return including dividends by the final date. It hinges on weaker persistence or payer access for Skyrizi and Rinvoq.
Where could AbbVie's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to moderate gains with substantial downside and upside risk. The probability-weighted price is $283.21 in October 2027, a 7% return including dividends. It reaches $298.09 in October 2028, a 15% return. By October 2029, it reaches $313.79, a 23% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 235.24 (-11%) | 214.90 (-16%) | 200.01 (-19%) |
| Base | 55% | 289.84 (+9%) | 309.77 (+19%) | 325.06 (+28%) |
| Bull | 20% | 324.95 (+22%) | 369.97 (+41%) | 425.03 (+65%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 283.21 (+7%) | 298.09 (+15%) | 313.79 (+23%) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for AbbVie?
The bear case holds first-year revenue at $73,000 million, then reduces it to $72,500 million and $72,000 million. Its margins fall from 39.9% to 37.0% because older-product erosion, payer pressure and Apogee costs offset replacement growth. The bull case reaches $75,000 million of revenue initially and then $84,000 million and $94,000 million, with margins reaching 43.0%. That requires growth above management’s high-single-digit description.
The base is supported by Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which supplied 42.3% of 2025 revenue. Each grew about 24% in the latest quarter, while neuroscience also grew strongly. The risk is concentration: Humira declined 35.9% in that quarter, and Apogee is expected to reduce adjusted EPS before contributing earnings.
How much cash does AbbVie really make?
Stock-based pay deserves a separate deduction. AbbVie granted $955 million of stock compensation in 2025. The cash-flow statement adds it back because no cash was paid, but employees received part of the ownership of the business. After that analytical deduction, free cash flow per diluted share fell 0.4%.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 19,030 | 18,806 | 22,839 | 24,943 | 22,777 |
| Capital spending | 1,214 | 974 | 777 | 695 | 787 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 17,816 | 17,832 | 22,062 | 24,248 | 21,990 |
| Stock-based pay | 955 | 911 | 747 | 671 | 692 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 16,861 | 16,921 | 21,315 | 23,577 | 21,298 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 9.51 | 9.54 | 12.02 | 13.26 | 11.99 |
What does an investor pay for AbbVie today?
The valuation snapshot implies about $16.41 of forecast EPS from a share price of $272.42 and a forward P/E of 16.6x. That implied figure sits above the latest 2026 adjusted-EPS guidance in the mid-$13 range, although the periods differ because the forward measure extends into 2027.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 272.42 |
| Market value (calculated) | 481,398.09 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 545,651.09 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.6x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.5% |