Lilly stock forecast
Lilly’s weighted forecast is $1,299.88 by October 2029, with the base case carrying the highest probability. It hinges on whether tirzepatide can keep bringing in patients and cash while Lilly builds its next growth engine.
Where could Lilly’s shares be by October 2029?
By October 2029, outcomes range from $498.17 in the bear case to $2,351.36 in the bull case. Today’s reference price is $1,169.93. The probabilities are 28% for the bear case, 52% for the base case, and 20% for the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 675.40 (-42 %) | 581.39 (-49 %) | 498.17 (-56 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 1221.33 (+5 %) | 1284.54 (+11 %) | 1327.15 (+16 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1594.87 (+37 %) | 1986.90 (+71 %) | 2351.36 (+103 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1143.18 (-2 %) | 1228.13 (+6 %) | 1299.88 (+13 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Lilly?
Revenue is the main engine, but the forecast assumes growth decelerates as the base expands. The base case starts with 32% growth in FY2026. It then steps down to 19% and 16%, reaching 13% in FY2029. Lilly’s guidance of $85 billion to $87 billion implies growth close to that first estimate against FY2025 revenue of $65.179 billion. First-half revenue of $42.773 billion is consistent with the outlook, while Q2 showed volume rising 60% as realized prices fell 13%.
The bear case falls from 29% to zero growth because payer limits, lower net prices, competition, and weaker persistence could overwhelm volume gains. The bull case stays at 35% initially, then remains unusually strong at 25%, 23%, and 20%. It requires capacity expansion, durable refills, Foundayo adoption, and later pipeline success. Foundayo contributed only $98 million in its launch quarter, while retatrutide’s planned Q1 2027 submission is a catalyst but not immediate revenue.
| FY2026 | FY2027 | FY2028 | FY2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue growth | 32.0 % (29.0 % / 35.0 %) | 19.0 % (10.0 % / 25.0 %) | 16.0 % (4.0 % / 23.0 %) | 13.0 % (0.0 % / 20.0 %) |
| Net margin | 32.0 % (28.5 % / 33.0 %) | 32.5 % (27.5 % / 34.0 %) | 33.0 % (27.0 % / 35.0 %) | 33.0 % (27.0 % / 36.0 %) |
| Earnings per share | 30.80 (26.80 / 32.49) | 37.45 (28.54 / 42.08) | 44.42 (29.23 / 53.59) | 50.57 (29.33 / 66.53) |
| Buybacks | 7,000 (7,000 / 7,000) | 7,500 (2,500 / 9,000) | 8,500 (2,000 / 11,000) | 9,500 (2,000 / 13,000) |
| Dividend per share | 6.92 (6.92 / 6.92) | 7.61 (7.27 / 7.96) | 8.37 (7.49 / 9.16) | 9.20 (7.71 / 10.53) |
How much cash does Lilly really make?
Stock compensation conserved cash but transferred value to employees through shares. Deducting the $626 million expense leaves analytical free cash flow of $8,346 million. Finally, Lilly’s recasting of certain research milestone payments from operating to investing cash flow changed presentation, not total cash.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 16,813 | 8,818 | 4,240 | 7,585.7 | 7,365.9 |
| Capital spending | 7,841 | 5,058 | 3,448 | 1,854.3 | 1,309.8 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 8,972 | 3,760 | 792 | 5,731.4 | 6,056.1 |
| Stock-based pay | 626 | 646 | 629 | 371.1 | 342.8 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 8,346 | 3,114 | 163 | 5,360.3 | 5,713.3 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 9.28 | 3.44 | 0.18 | 5.93 | 6.27 |
What does an investor pay for Lilly today?
A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how much investors pay for one dollar of annual profit. A trailing P/E uses the last year’s earnings; a forward P/E uses an estimate of the next year’s. The lower forward multiple is therefore a bet that Lilly’s earnings will rise. It is not proof that the shares are cheap, because the forecast may fail.