Amgen stock forecast
Amgen's weighted price reaches $548.42 by October 2029, with the base case carrying 55% probability. It hinges on replacing denosumab erosion, proving MariTide and reducing debt.
Where could Amgen's shares be by 2029?
Amgen’s weighted price reaches $548.42 by October 2029, a 39% total return with dividends, if replacement growth offsets older-brand erosion and MariTide’s potential upside emerges. Management guides to 2026 revenue of $38,200–$39,400 million. It guides to non-GAAP diluted EPS of $22.30–$23.50. It also forecasts $2,600 million of capital expenditures and adjusted research spending growth at a high-single-digit rate.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 332.04 (-18 %) | 275.31 (-29 %) | 251.34 (-33 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 543.73 (+33 %) | 548.16 (+37 %) | 548.50 (+39 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 688.49 (+67 %) | 814.88 (+100 %) | 919.57 (+128 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 519.76 (+27 %) | 533.29 (+33 %) | 548.42 (+39 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Amgen?
The base begins near the roughly $13.2 billion implied by the next-12-month analyst estimate and approximately 540 million shares. Management's 2026 EPS guidance is $22.30–$23.50, which supports a near-term earnings anchor. The base assumes Repatha, EVENITY and TEZSPIRE broadly offset older-brand erosion, while the bear assumes Prolia, Xgeva and Enbrel pressure overwhelms replacement growth. The bull requires stronger uptake, pricing and operating leverage.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 13,309 (12,020 / 13,678) | 14,025 (11,542 / 14,960) | 14,708 (11,457 / 16,215) |
| Shares (millions) | 538 (543 / 536) | 537 (545 / 532) | 536 (547 / 529) |
| Dividends per share | 10.53 (10.08 / 10.59) | 11.32 (10.08 / 11.56) | 12.00 (10.08 / 12.36) |
| Price to earnings | 22.00 (15.00 / 27.00) | 21.00 (13.00 / 29.00) | 20.00 (12.00 / 30.00) |
How much cash does Amgen really make?
Stock compensation also belongs in the economic calculation. Amgen added back $494 million of stock pay in operating cash flow because issuing shares is not an immediate cash payment. Deducting it gives real free cash flow of $7,606 million, or 20.7% of revenue. That remains substantial, but it was below the $8,040 million achieved in 2021.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 9,958 | 11,490 | 8,471 | 9,721 | 9,261 |
| − Capital spending | 1,858 | 1,096 | 1,112 | 936 | 880 |
| = Free cash flow | 8,100 | 10,394 | 7,359 | 8,785 | 8,381 |
| − Stock pay | 494 | 530 | 431 | 401 | 341 |
| = Real free cash flow | 7,606 | 9,864 | 6,928 | 8,384 | 8,040 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 20.7% | 29.5% | 24.6% | 31.9% | 30.9% |
What does an investor pay for Amgen today?
Today’s price requires durable growth from Amgen’s established portfolio, with MariTide providing uncertain additional value. The forward P/E of 17.1x and share price of $417.57 imply estimated annual earnings of about $24.42 per share. That estimate exceeds Amgen’s full-year 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $22.30–$23.50, although the periods are not identical.