Hormel stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast puts Hormel's share price at $17.10 in October 2027, $18.22 in October 2028, and $20.49 in October 2029. It hinges on volume and margin recovery plus Brakebush execution.
Where could Hormel's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to weak near-term returns, followed by a modest recovery if Hormel executes its plan. The weighted share price is $17.10 in October 2027; including dividends, the return is a 13% loss from today’s $21.06. It reaches $18.22 in October 2028, still a 2% loss, before rising to $20.49 in October 2029, a 14% gain.
The 2029 outcomes remain wide: the bear case reaches $9.77, while the bull case reaches $32.34. The base case is the most likely because it assumes recovery without requiring a full operational re-rating.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28% | 11.99 (-38%) | 9.88 (-42%) | 9.77 (-37%) |
| Base | 54% | 18.11 (-8%) | 19.62 (+4%) | 22.10 (+22%) |
| Bull | 18% | 21.99 (+10%) | 27.00 (+40%) | 32.34 (+71%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 17.10 (-13%) | 18.22 (-2%) | 20.49 (+14%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Hormel?
The base path assumes modest sales growth, Retail stabilization, resilient Foodservice, and partial Brakebush benefits. It approaches the historical adjusted average, supported by July adjusted operating income of $266 million versus $254 million a year earlier. The bear case reflects falling organic pounds, weak margins, and acquisition costs before savings. The bull case requires cost pass-through, plant savings, and the targeted Brakebush contribution.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 1,128 (1,025 / 1,200) | 1,194 (968 / 1,300) | 1,248 (1,029 / 1,391) |
| Shares (millions) | 551 (551 / 551) | 551 (551 / 551) | 551 (551 / 550) |
| Dividends per share | 1.18 (1.17 / 1.18) | 1.20 (1.17 / 1.21) | 1.22 (1.17 / 1.24) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 11.50 (9.50 / 12.50) | 11.50 (9.00 / 13.50) | 12.00 (8.50 / 14.50) |
| Net debt | 3,001 (3,132 / 2,892) | 2,917 (3,270 / 2,672) | 2,794 (3,364 / 2,367) |
How much cash does Hormel really make?
Stock compensation reduced the analytical “real free cash flow” to $509 million. Hormel paid record dividends of $633 million in fiscal 2025, more than that measure. The company still has cash-generating operations, but distributions, investment and working capital together make the balance sheet more important.
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 845,251 | 1,266,738 | 1,047,847 | 1,134,977 | 1,001,934 |
| − Capital spending | 310,902 | 256,441 | 270,211 | 278,918 | 232,416 |
| = Free cash flow | 534,349 | 1,010,297 | 777,636 | 856,059 | 769,518 |
| − Stock pay | 25,602 | 23,233 | 24,077 | 24,943 | 24,744 |
| = Real free cash flow | 508,747 | 987,064 | 753,559 | 831,116 | 744,774 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 4.2% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because shares given to employees cost no cash today but give away part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Hormel today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with annual earnings. The trailing version uses the past year; the forward version uses an estimate. If a shop earned $1 last year but expects $2 next year, a $20 price equals 20 times past earnings but 10 times expected earnings. Hormel’s forward valuation therefore assumes that its adjusted earnings recovery arrives.