Garmin stock forecast: where shares could go
Garmin's weighted forecast is $277.87 in October 2029. It hinges on Fitness carrying growth while Thailand and Mercedes-Benz convert investment into durable profit.
Where could Garmin's shares be by 2029?
Weighted value is $268.75 in October 2027, a −4% return including dividends. It is $277.87 in October 2029, a +3% return. The bear case has a 27% probability, the base case 56%, and the bull case 17%. By October 2029, bear value is $155.03 and bull value is $413.77.
The weighted forecast is broadly flat: $268.75 in October 2027, $271.04 in October 2028 and $277.87 in October 2029. Against today’s $284.79, those outcomes are losses of 4% and 1%, followed by a 3% gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27% | 191.76 (-31%) | 173.18 (-36%) | 155.03 (-41%) |
| Base | 56% | 283.66 (+1%) | 284.23 (+3%) | 295.84 (+9%) |
| Bull | 17% | 341.93 (+22%) | 383.01 (+38%) | 413.77 (+51%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 268.75 (-4%) | 271.04 (-1%) | 277.87 (+3%) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Garmin?
Earnings provide the main operating path. The base case starts at $2,189 million in October 2027, anchored by the analyst EPS estimate and a revenue-margin cross-check. It rises to $2,384 million in October 2028 and $2,595 million in October 2029, consistent with the 8.88% long-term EPS-growth forecast.
The bear case uses weaker revenue and normalized margins because Fitness growth may moderate, Outdoor declined in Q2 2026, memory costs are rising and Auto OEM remains loss-making. The bull case reaches $2,354 million, then $2,635 million and $2,951 million as premium demand, aviation, Thailand and Mercedes improve together. Aviation growth in both OEM and aftermarket categories supports that upside, but the acquisitions provide no separately quantified earnings contribution.
How much cash does Garmin really make?
Free cash flow is cash from operations minus spending on property and equipment. Garmin’s free cash flow was $1,362,913 thousand in 2025, or 18.8% of revenue. A more conservative measure subtracts stock pay, which compensates employees with shares and can dilute shareholders. That real free cash flow was $1,196,910 thousand, or 16.5% of revenue.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,633,359 | 1,432,471 | 1,376,265 | 788,259 | 1,012,427 |
| − Capital spending | 270,446 | 193,571 | 193,524 | 244,286 | 307,645 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,362,913 | 1,238,900 | 1,182,741 | 543,973 | 704,782 |
| − Stock pay | 166,003 | 137,162 | 101,422 | 76,801 | 92,522 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,196,910 | 1,101,738 | 1,081,319 | 467,172 | 612,260 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 16.5% | 17.5% | 20.7% | 9.6% | 12.3% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash but gives away part of the company.
What does an investor pay today for Garmin's earnings and cash?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 284.79 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 29.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.5% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.5% |
What this means. The next-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ expected profit, so it can change and may be wrong.