Fairfax earnings: date, guidance and what to watch
Fairfax next reports on October 29, 2026. The key watch is whether Fairfax converts its plans into funded investments while preserving recurring insurance earnings.
What has Fairfax guided for the year?
Management’s plan is to build a varied earnings machine and compound shareholder wealth over time. At its April 16 annual meeting, Fairfax set a long-term goal for mark-to-market book value per share. Book value per share is the accounting estimate of what belongs to common shareholders, divided by the shares outstanding. Mark-to-market means updating investment values to current prices. It measures internal wealth, while the Toronto share price reflects what buyers and sellers will pay.
The nearer-term plan is a large pool of annual operating income over the next four years. Fairfax expects that pool to come from interest and dividends, insurance underwriting, and associates and consolidated non-insurance companies. An associate is a business Fairfax influences without controlling. Fairfax may record its share of an associate’s profit even when that business keeps the cash.
| Period it covers | Low | High | Date given | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compound our mark-to-market book value per share over the long term annually (%) | Long term | 15.0% | 15.0% | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Interest and dividend income | Next four years | 2,500.0 | Apr 16, 2026 | |
| Underwriting profit | Next four years | 1,500.0 | Apr 16, 2026 | |
| Share of profit from associates & consolidated non-insurance income | Next four years | 1,000.0 | Apr 16, 2026 | |
| Potential earnings per share, before any investment gains (US$) | Next four years | 150.00 | 150.00 | Apr 16, 2026 |
| Undiscounted combined ratios consistently below (%) | Long term | 100.0% | Mar 6, 2026 |
What this means. The company’s forecast leaves out investment gains and losses, so it is not a forecast of total profit.
What do Fairfax's last eight quarters show?
Compared with June 2025, net premiums written rose 2.4% and the combined ratio improved from 93.3% to 93.1%. Core earnings nevertheless declined from 1,130.0 to 1,105.5 because weaker associate earnings offset stronger underwriting and interest income.
| Jun 2026 | Mar 2026 | Dec 2025 | Sep 2025 | Jun 2025 | Mar 2025 | Dec 2024 | Sep 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums written | 7,344.1 | 7,058.0 | 5,828.5 | 6,555.5 | 7,170.1 | 6,774.6 | 5,824.3 | 6,420.4 |
| Combined ratio | 93.1% | 94.1% | 88.6% | 92.0% | 93.3% | 98.5% | 89.5% | 93.9% |
| Core earnings (company's measure) | 1,105.5 | 1,213.4 | 1,471.1 | 1,343.2 | 1,130.0 | 685.5 | 1,527.8 | 1,136.8 |
| Net income | 1,392.7 | 695.7 | 1,238.3 | 1,151.7 | 1,436.7 | 945.7 | 1,152.2 | 1,030.8 |
| EPS, diluted | 63.38 | 31.11 | 57.57 | 52.04 | 61.61 | 42.70 | 50.42 | 42.62 |
What this means. The company's core earnings are its own pre-tax measure of insurance profit, so they are not the same as net income left for shareholders after all costs and taxes.
What should Fairfax readers watch in the next release?
The decisive test is whether Fairfax converts its plans into funded investments while preserving recurring insurance earnings. In the next quarterly report, investors should read parent liquidity beside subsidiary dividends, acquisition payments and actual repurchases. Rising EPS means less if the cash supporting it is steadily leaving the parent.
The first quarter of 2027 is the main transaction window. Boots is expected to close then, and IDBI may also complete subject to approvals and definitive agreements. The important disclosures will be the final cash requirement, the source of that cash and the liquidity left afterward. Contributions of existing investments must be separated from fresh money available to sellers.