AIG stock forecast
AIG’s weighted path is an 8% loss by October 2027 or a 36% gain by October 2029. It hinges on repeatable underwriting and expense progress.
Where could AIG’s shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is $72.49 in October 2027, an 8% loss including dividends. It is $104.04 in October 2029, a 36% gain including dividends. Bear, base, and bull probabilities are 25%, 55%, and 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 50.44 (-35 %) | 44.71 (-40 %) | 41.41 (-42 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 72.43 (-8 %) | 85.83 (+11 %) | 101.58 (+33 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 100.21 (+27 %) | 138.11 (+77 %) | 189.09 (+143 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 72.49 (-8 %) | 86.00 (+11 %) | 104.04 (+36 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each possible outcome the probability shown for that case.
What has to go right for AIG, and what could go wrong?
The bear case assumes weaker property pricing, casualty reserve strengthening and higher catastrophe losses. The bull case requires profitable renewals, Convex participation, expense progress and no material adverse claims development. AIG’s below-30% expense-ratio objective supports the bull case, but it remains an operating target rather than GAAP earnings guidance.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net premiums earned | 23,751 | 23,537 | 25,564 | ||
| Combined ratio (under 100% = underwriting profit) | 90.1% | ||||
| Underwriting income, excluding Validus Re, CRS and AIG’s Travel business | 2,332 | 1,872 | 1,888 | 1,724 | 947 |
| Core operating return on equity | 11.1% |
What this means. The underwriting income figures leave out several businesses, so they are not the insurer’s total profit.
How much cash does AIG really make?
AIG’s investment income was $4,215 million in 2025. Net income was $3,096 million, while core earnings, AIG’s own measure, were $4,044 million. The gap matters because bond income, private-market valuations, taxes, corporate costs and transactions do not have the same repeatability.
Continuing operations generated $3,314 million of operating cash in 2025, close to net income of $3,096 million. But premiums arrive before many claims, so current cash can precede a reserve shortfall. The next test is how assets and debt support those obligations.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net investment income | 4,215 | ||||
| Core earnings (company's measure) | 4,044 | ||||
| Net income | 3,096 | ||||
| Dividend per share | 1.75 | 1.56 | 1.40 | 1.28 | 1.28 |
What this means. The company's core earnings are its own adjusted profit measure, so they differ from net income because certain items are treated differently.
What does an investor pay for AIG today?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, compares the share price with earnings per share. Reported earnings include every accounting gain and loss recorded during the period; core earnings remove items management considers unusual or unrelated to the continuing insurance operation. In second-quarter 2026, diluted earnings were $1.78 per share and adjusted earnings were $2.00. AIG’s lower core multiple is useful only if the excluded investment movements are temporary and the earnings left behind continue after the Corebridge sale.