Con Edison stock forecast
Con Edison's weighted forecast reaches $117.43 by October 2029, after $105.43 in October 2027 and $111.11 in October 2028. Con Edison's forecast hinges on approved investment entering service with broadly constructive recovery.
Where could Con Edison's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to a modest base-case gain, but the weighted result stays below today in the first year. The probability-weighted price is $105.43 in October 2027, implying a 3% loss including dividends. It rises to $111.11 in October 2028, a 6% gain. By October 2029 it reaches $117.43, a 15% gain. Today’s reference price is $112.26.
The range at the final date is wide, from $87.81 in the bear case to $146.40 in the bull case. The probabilities favor continuity: bear 28%, base 54% and bull 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28% | 90.99 (-16%) | 89.46 (-14%) | 87.81 (-12%) |
| Base | 54% | 108.69 (+0%) | 115.60 (+10%) | 123.14 (+20%) |
| Bull | 18% | 118.14 (+9%) | 131.32 (+24%) | 146.40 (+41%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 105.43 (-3%) | 111.11 (+6%) | 117.43 (+15%) |
What has to go right for Con Edison, and what could go wrong?
The base case applies 6.5% annual EPS growth and 2% annual share growth. It reaches $2,393 million in October 2027, $2,600 million in October 2028 and $2,825 million in October 2029. The path sits near the midpoint of management’s 6%–7% growth target and assumes approved investment enters service with broadly constructive recovery. The bear case uses 3% EPS growth and 2% share growth, producing $2,313 million, $2,429 million and $2,551 million because affordability, regulatory lag and financing costs weaken per-share growth. The bull case uses 8.5% EPS growth and 1.5% share growth, producing $2,426 million, $2,672 million and $2,943 million because electrification, reliability demand and timely project recovery exceed the plan.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,393 (2,313 / 2,426) | 2,600 (2,429 / 2,672) | 2,825 (2,551 / 2,943) |
| Shares (millions) | 381 (381 / 380) | 389 (394 / 387) | 397 (407 / 392) |
| Dividends per share | 3.66 (3.55 / 3.70) | 3.81 (3.55 / 3.90) | 3.96 (3.55 / 4.10) |
| Price to earnings | 17.30 (15.00 / 18.50) | 17.30 (14.50 / 19.00) | 17.30 (14.00 / 19.50) |
What this means. The numbers in parentheses show lower and higher possible outcomes around the main forecast.
How much cash does Con Edison really make?
In 2025, operating cash flow reached $4,800 million, compared with net income of $2,023 million. Depreciation explains part of the difference: it reduces accounting profit without requiring a new cash payment that year. But after $5,245 million of capital spending, free cash flow was negative $445 million. That pattern appeared throughout the five years shown.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,800 | 3,614 | 2,156 | 3,429 | 2,558 |
| − Capital spending | 5,245 | 5,245 | 4,740 | 4,161 | 3,953 |
| = Free cash flow | -445 | -1,631 | -2,584 | -732 | -1,395 |
| − Stock pay | 55 | 35 | |||
| = Real free cash flow | -500 | -1,666 |
What this means. Free cash flow is negative because the company spent more cash on equipment and buildings than its day-to-day business brought in.
What does an investor pay today for Con Edison?
The dividend looks more comfortable against accounting earnings than against cash. Free cash flow is the cash left after investment, and Con Edison reported $2.47 billion of utility capital expenditures in the first half of 2026. Contractors must be paid today, even when depreciation and customer recovery occur over decades. That explains how the dividend can consume about 58% of adjusted earnings while free cash flow remains negative. The tension between earnings and cash leads to the company’s history.