National Grid stock forecast
National Grid's weighted price is 1118.86 GBp in October 2027 and 1318.29 GBp in October 2029. It hinges on approvals, delivery and asset recognition.
Where could National Grid's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is 1118.86 GBp in October 2027, 1212.82 GBp in October 2028 and 1318.29 GBp in October 2029. Including dividends, those outcomes represent returns of 0%, 13% and 26% from today’s 1164.50 GBp. By October 2029, the range is wide: 782.89 GBp in the bear case to 1864.75 GBp in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 885.56 (-20 %) | 834.86 (-20 %) | 782.89 (-20 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 1157.47 (+4 %) | 1275.85 (+18 %) | 1404.76 (+34 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 1353.21 (+21 %) | 1590.67 (+45 %) | 1864.75 (+74 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1118.86 (+0 %) | 1212.82 (+13 %) | 1318.29 (+26 %) |
What has to go right for National Grid, and what could go wrong?
The starting point is FY2026 adjusted net income of £2,892m, excluding the £489m disposal gain. The record is uneven: adjusted net income fell from £3,100m in FY2024 to £2,615m in FY2025 before recovering. The base case applies 8.5% annual growth. It reaches £3,268m in October 2027 and £3,846m in October 2029. The middle figure is £3,545m. This is consistent with the stated 8–10% EPS ambition, while the £13bn FY2027 investment plan and 10% asset-growth target support the regulated growth thesis. The bear case applies 3% growth, reaching £3,023m and then £3,208m, because negative free cash flow and higher finance costs could delay returns. Its middle figure is £3,113m. The bull case applies 12% growth, reaching £3,427m and £4,363m. Its middle figure is £3,867m, requiring approvals, delivery and asset recognition to outperform together.
How much cash does National Grid really make?
Cash capital spending left free cash flow deeply negative. Treating share-based pay as an economic cost makes “real free cash flow” weaker still, because the award dilutes shareholders even though it is not another cash payment. This deficit does not prove that network investment is uneconomic: NGET’s asset-health programme alone totalled about £1.7 billion across RIIO-T2, the UK transmission price-control period. It does show that dividends and expansion require financing beyond internally generated cash.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,829 | 6,808 | 6,939 | 6,343 | 5,490 |
| − Capital spending | 10,575 | 9,306 | 7,453 | 6,892 | 5,544 |
| = Free cash flow | -4,823 | -4,548 | -2,259 | -2,134 | -1,224 |
| − Stock pay | 45 | 37 | 37 | 48 | 38 |
| = Real free cash flow | -4,868 | -4,585 | -2,296 | -2,182 | -1,262 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -27.5% | -24.9% | -11.6% | -10.1% | -6.8% |
What does an investor pay for National Grid today?
Market value is the shareholders’ claim; enterprise value adds lenders’ claim and subtracts cash. Think of a house bought with a mortgage: the house is the whole asset, but the owner’s equity is what remains after the lender’s claim. At 1164.50p on 12 October 2026, National Grid’s market value was £58,538 million. Enterprise value was £101,572 million. Net debt was £44,160 million at 31 March 2026, measured on a different date and under the company’s own definition.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1164.50 |
| Market value (calculated) | 58,538 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 101,572 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -8.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -8.3% |