Exelon stock forecast
Exelon's weighted scenario is $42.91 by October 2029, an 11% total return including dividends. It hinges on regulators approving investment, customers affording the resulting bills and large-load commitments becoming paying customers.
Where could Exelon's shares be by 2029?
The forecast sees limited near-term upside, followed by a more meaningful return if Exelon executes its investment plan. The probability-weighted price is $40.91 in October 2027, implying a 2% loss including dividends. It rises to $41.64 in October 2028, a 4% gain, and $42.91 in October 2029, an 11% gain.
The final-date outcomes are wide. The bear case reaches $29.09, while the bull case reaches $55.12. Today’s price is $43.50, so the central forecast remains cautious despite rising earnings and dividends.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 34.62 (-17 %) | 30.64 (-22 %) | 29.09 (-22 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 41.84 (+0 %) | 43.33 (+8 %) | 44.76 (+16 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 46.20 (+10 %) | 50.77 (+25 %) | 55.12 (+40 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 40.91 (-2 %) | 41.64 (+4 %) | 42.91 (+11 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it can be below the base case.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Exelon?
The bear path starts at $2,730 million. It falls to $2,670 million before recovering to $2,700 million. This reflects delayed recovery, disallowed costs and financing pressure. The bull path starts at $3,150 million, then reaches $3,410 million and $3,650 million as rate-base expansion and project execution approach the upper end of management’s target. Net income rose each year from 2021 through 2025, supporting the base over the bear case.
How much cash does Exelon really make?
Free cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital spending. Exelon spent $8,529 million in 2025, leaving free cash flow of negative $2,275 million. Deducting $41 million of stock compensation produces real free cash flow of negative $2,316 million. That deduction recognizes the economic cost of issuing shareholders’ ownership to employees.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,254 | 5,569 | 4,703 | ||
| − Capital spending | 8,529 | 7,097 | 7,408 | 6,921 | 6,640 |
| = Free cash flow | -2,275 | -1,528 | -2,705 | ||
| − Stock pay | 41 | 34 | 21 | 41 | 95 |
| = Real free cash flow | -2,316 | -1,562 | -2,726 |
What does an investor pay today for Exelon?
Free cash flow is what remains after capital spending. Exelon’s negative free-cash-flow yield signals a funding gap rather than distributable cash. The plan includes $3.4 billion of equity through 2029. That is about $850 million annually. Equity funds about 40% of incremental capital, and about 37% of those equity needs had been priced through forward contracts by July. At $43.50, $850 million would illustrate roughly 19.5 million shares. A forward contract prices a future sale; it does not mean those shares already exist. The useful test is therefore earnings per share, not total earnings.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 43.50 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 15.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -5.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -5.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.9% |
What this means. The negative free cash flow yields mean the company spent more cash than it generated recently, even though it may still report a profit and pay dividends.