PSEG stock forecast
PSEG’s probability-weighted price is $73.35 by October 2029, a 17% gain including dividends. It hinges on rate recovery and financing staying manageable.
Where could PSEG’s shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to a restrained return from today’s $70.26 share price. The probability-weighted price is $66.70 by October 2027, a 1% loss including dividends. By October 2028, it reaches $69.82, a 7% gain including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches $73.35, a 17% gain including dividends.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 57.56 (-14 %) | 53.17 (-17 %) | 48.82 (-19 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 69.21 (+2 %) | 74.03 (+13 %) | 79.14 (+25 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 75.77 (+12 %) | 87.69 (+33 %) | 101.18 (+57 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 66.70 (-1 %) | 69.82 (+7 %) | 73.35 (+17 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for PSEG?
The bear case gives $2,050 million in 2027 and $2,040 million in 2028. It falls to $2,030 million in 2029 because delayed rate recovery, affordability pressure and financing costs offset progress. The bull case begins at $2,360 million, reaches $2,570 million, and ends at $2,800 million as faster recovery, strong nuclear output and contracted data-center or nuclear demand add earnings. Those opportunities remain uncertain. The model excludes volatile hedge, tax-credit, pension and nuclear-trust effects.
How much cash does PSEG really make?
In 2025, operating cash flow was $3,298 million against net income of $2,111 million. Capital spending of $3,272 million then left free cash flow of only $26 million. Free cash flow is the cash remaining after operating needs and capital investment, so strong cash generation does not necessarily mean cash is available for dividends.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,298 | 2,133 | 3,806 |
| − Capital spending | 3,272 | 3,380 | 3,325 |
| = Free cash flow | 26 | -1,247 | 481 |
| − Stock pay | 43 | 40 | 18 |
| = Real free cash flow | -17 | -1,287 | 463 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | -0.1% | -12.5% | 4.1% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower than free cash flow because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves today.
What does an investor pay for PSEG today?
The forward P/E of 15.1x implies about $4.65 of earnings per share from the next twelve months. That is above the $4.28–$4.40 operating-earnings guidance for calendar 2026, partly because the forecast period extends into 2027. The lower multiple is therefore partly a promise of higher future earnings.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 70.26 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -0.0% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is an estimate rather than a known result.