EQT stock forecast
EQT's weighted forecast stays negative through October 2029. It hinges on realized gas prices, durable production, and cash remaining after investment and debt.
Where could EQT's shares go?
The weighted share price is $38.30 in October 2027, implying a return of -28% from today’s $54.42 including dividends. It is $43.09 in October 2028, a return of -18%. By October 2029 it reaches $51.36, or -2%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 24.88 (-53 %) | 18.60 (-64 %) | 23.75 (-54 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 39.70 (-26 %) | 46.87 (-11 %) | 52.80 (+1 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 54.93 (+2 %) | 70.39 (+32 %) | 89.18 (+68 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 38.30 (-28 %) | 43.09 (-18 %) | 51.36 (-2 %) |
What has to go right for EQT, and what could go wrong?
The base path uses steady volume growth and better market access, supported by two quarters of production above guidance and lower capital spending. It does not assume a sustained gas-price boom. The bear case reflects the Q2 realized price falling to $2.65/Mcfe from $2.81 a year earlier, while the bull case requires stronger demand, takeaway and LNG economics. The 2026 sales guidance of 2,375–2,450 Bcfe anchors the near-term outlook, not the later years.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 5,360 (4,650 / 6,370) | 5,750 (4,090 / 7,050) | 6,070 (4,460 / 7,850) |
| Shares (millions) | 627 (628 / 622) | 627 (630 / 618) | 626 (633 / 612) |
| Dividends per share | 0.68 (0.68 / 0.68) | 0.68 (0.34 / 0.72) | 0.68 (0.34 / 0.80) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.50 (4.50 / 6.00) | 5.70 (4.20 / 6.50) | 5.80 (4.50 / 7.00) |
| Net debt | 4,589 (5,299 / 4,029) | 3,375 (5,453 / 2,309) | 2,161 (5,038 / 329) |
How much cash does EQT really make?
The straightforward calculation subtracts cash capital spending from operating cash flow. EQT’s own measure changes that calculation: it removes working-capital movements, uses accrual-based capital spending and deducts contributions to equity-method investments. Accrual spending records an investment when incurred, which may not match the payment date.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,125,952 | 2,826,973 | 3,178,850 | 3,465,560 | 1,662,448 |
| − Capital spending | 2,288,425 | 2,253,709 | 2,019,037 | 1,400,443 | 1,055,128 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,837,527 | 573,264 | 1,159,813 | 2,065,117 | 607,320 |
| − Stock pay | 60,781 | 158,344 | 49,834 | 45,201 | 28,169 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,776,746 | 414,920 | 1,109,979 | 2,019,916 | 579,151 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs from ours because it uses different rules for counting investments and other cash items; we count the actual cash spent on equipment and buildings.
What does an investor pay for EQT today?
At $54.42 on October 19, 2026, EQT’s equity market value was $34,040,580.72 thousand. Its enterprise value was $39,583,431.72 thousand, showing why the company’s approximately $5.5 billion of net debt matters: shareholders must receive the cash left after those obligations.