Duke Energy dividend: cash coverage and yield
Duke Energy's dividend has risen each year through 2025, and the forecast ranges from $4.34 to $4.75 per share annually. Dividend payments exceeded free cash flow in each year shown, so cash coverage is a central question.
How much does Duke Energy pay per share?
Dividends provide a partial cushion. The base case pays $4.36 per share in the October 2027 window and $4.45 in 2028, reaching $4.54 in 2029. The bear case holds the quarterly rate flat at $4.34 annually. The bull case reaches $4.39, then $4.57, and $4.75. Recent dividends rose each year through 2025, while management targets a 60%–70% payout ratio.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 6.31 | 5.70 | 5.35 | 4.74 | 4.68 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 4.18 | 4.02 | 4.07 | 3.99 | 3.91 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
What this means. Although the company made a profit, its free cash flow was negative, so it paid shareholders more cash than the business generated.
Does Duke Energy's dividend come from its cash?
Duke continued paying substantial dividends and made no buybacks or acquisitions during the five-year period. That returned cash to shareholders, but increased the amount the company had to obtain elsewhere. Debt supplied most of the gap, with asset sales and minority investments providing additional support. Net debt rose from $66,798 million in 2021 to $89,591 million in 2025. The program was therefore still being financed rather than paying for itself.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | -1,694 | 48 | -2,726 | -5,440 | -1,425 |
| − Dividends paid | 3,244 | 3,107 | 3,138 | 3,073 | 3,008 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 4,969 | 3,091 | 5,923 | 8,653 | 4,499 |
What this means. The company paid dividends even when free cash flow was negative, so it had to use savings or new borrowing.
What could change Duke Energy's dividend?
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 5,450 (5,242 / 5,547) | 5,767 (5,292 / 5,990) | 6,087 (5,342 / 6,468) |
| Dividends per share | 4.36 (4.34 / 4.39) | 4.45 (4.34 / 4.57) | 4.54 (4.34 / 4.75) |
| Price to earnings | 16.60 (15.50 / 18.00) | 16.60 (14.50 / 19.00) | 16.60 (13.50 / 20.00) |
What is Duke Energy's dividend yield today?
At $118.88, Duke trades at 16.6x forward earnings. Its dividend yield is 3.7%, while free-cash-flow yield is -1.8%. Revenue rose from $24,621 million in 2021 to $32,237 million in 2025, and operating margin rose from 20.9% in 2022 to 26.8% in 2025. The company’s own free cash flow—cash from operations minus capital spending—was negative in four of the five years, with a -5.5% margin in 2025; net debt reached $89,591 million. EPS reached $6.31, but free cash flow per share was -$2.30. Dividend payments exceeded free cash flow in each year shown.