Cummins stock forecast
Cummins's weighted price is $521.64 in October 2027, with 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull probabilities. Cummins's forecast hinges on Power Systems capacity converting into shipments and cash.
Where could Cummins's shares be by 2029?
At today’s $531.33, the weighted price is $521.64 in October 2027. Including dividends, that is roughly flat. It rises to $589.37 in October 2028, a 14% total return. By October 2029, it reaches $681.25, a 34% return. The 2029 range runs from $315.70 in the bear case to $1,087.31 in the bull case. The forecast assigns 25% to the bear, 55% to the base and 20% to the bull, reflecting a cyclical business with credible growth but substantial execution risk.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 355.10 (-32 %) | 307.86 (-39 %) | 315.70 (-36 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 535.68 (+3 %) | 613.02 (+19 %) | 699.76 (+37 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 691.20 (+32 %) | 876.23 (+69 %) | 1087.31 (+110 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 521.64 (-0 %) | 589.37 (+14 %) | 681.25 (+34 %) |
What has to go right for Cummins's base case, and what could go wrong?
Operating profit is the main earnings choice. The base case rises from $5,000 million in October 2027 to $5,800 million in October 2029. It assumes revenue grows from the 2026 guided level, Power Systems capacity converts into shipments and trucks recover gradually, with normal-cycle margins near 12.8%–13.4%. The bear case stays near $4,000 million because truck weakness, delayed generators and launch costs arrive first. The bull reaches $6,800 million as data-center orders convert quickly and margins approach 14%. Power Systems sales rose 19% in the latest quarter, but Engine sales fell 7% and its EBITDA fell faster, supporting both sides of the range.
The bear case requires delayed data-center projects, underused new capacity, a weaker truck cycle and costly launches.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 5,000 (4,100 / 5,600) | 5,400 (4,000 / 6,200) | 5,800 (4,200 / 6,800) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 15.00 (12.50 / 17.00) | 15.50 (11.00 / 19.00) | 16.00 (10.50 / 21.00) |
| Net debt | 1,954 (2,647 / 1,149) | 562 (1,990 / -605) | -1,653 (1,136 / -3,324) |
What this means. A negative net debt number means the company has more cash than debt, so it could repay all its borrowing and still have cash left.
How much cash does Cummins really make?
Free cash flow means operating cash flow after capital spending on factories and equipment. Stock compensation does not consume current cash, but it gives employees an economic claim, so subtracting it produces a stricter owner-oriented measure.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 2,386 | 279 | 2,753 | 1,046 | 1,470 |
| − Stock pay | 93 | 100 | 79 | 33 | 36 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,293 | 179 | 2,674 | 1,013 | 1,434 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.1% | 0.8% | 8.1% | 3.7% | 6.1% |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 6.8% | 0.5% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 6.0% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because we subtract shares given to employees, even though giving away shares does not use cash immediately.
What does an investor pay for Cummins today?
Market value is what shareholders’ ownership is worth. Enterprise value goes further: it approximates the cost of buying the operating business while taking responsibility for its borrowings. Cummins had $7,695 million of debt and $3,924 million of cash and marketable securities in June 2026, leaving $3,771 million of net debt. The balance sheet also included $1,059 million belonging to owners of consolidated subsidiaries other than Cummins shareholders.