PACCAR stock forecast
PACCAR's weighted forecast is $84.49 in October 2027, $101.83 in October 2028 and $113.94 in October 2029. It hinges on a profitable truck recovery.
Where could PACCAR's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast says PCAR falls first, then recovers to a modest gain by October 2029. The weighted price is $84.49 in October 2027 and $101.83 in October 2028. It reaches $113.94 in October 2029.
The bear case has 30% probability. The base case has 52%. The bull case has 18%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 55.38 (-49 %) | 59.70 (-44 %) | 65.36 (-37 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 89.82 (-18 %) | 109.39 (+1 %) | 122.99 (+15 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 117.56 (+7 %) | 150.19 (+38 %) | 168.75 (+56 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 84.49 (-22 %) | 101.83 (-6 %) | 113.94 (+7 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for PACCAR?
The bear case carries 30% probability. The base case carries 52%, and the bull case 18%. The October 2029 bear-to-bull range is $65.36–$168.75. The recovery needs freight and fleet utilization to support replacement demand, production costs controlled and dealer inventory contained. Parts growth and stable PFS credit quality help. Rising finance provisions or continued Amplify delay hurt. The next checkpoint is the third-quarter earnings call on October 27, 2026. PACCAR must turn stronger orders and builds into profitable deliveries while maintaining its margin outlook.
How much cash does PACCAR really make?
Operating cash flow was $4.42 billion in 2025, including $1.49 billion of higher cash provided by wholesale receivables on new trucks in Financial Services. That cash is real, but it belongs partly to lending activity. Free cash flow usually means operating cash flow less capital spending. The memo’s “real” free cash flow also deducts stock-based compensation, which transfers value through shares or options.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 4,415.8 | 4,640.9 | 4,190.0 | 3,027.0 | 2,186.7 |
| − Capital spending | 743.0 | 838.7 | 695.0 | 525.0 | 559.1 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,672.8 | 3,802.2 | 3,495.0 | 2,502.0 | 1,627.6 |
| − Stock pay | 24.1 | 22.9 | 21.2 | 17.1 | 14.7 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,648.7 | 3,779.3 | 3,473.8 | 2,484.9 | 1,612.9 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 12.8% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.9% |
What this means. PACCAR's cash numbers include its financial services lending business, so they are not just the cash generated by making and selling trucks.
What does an investor pay for PACCAR today?
Price-to-earnings, or P/E, compares the share price with earnings per share. A trailing P/E uses the past year’s earnings; a forward P/E uses an estimate for the next year. The forward multiple is lower because analysts expect earnings to rise. Analysts build those forecasts from truck orders, production, margins, parts sales, and finance income, but investors decide whether to believe them.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 110.82 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 23.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.4x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.3% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.3% |