Deere stock forecast
Deere's weighted scenario reaches $830.90 in October 2029. It hinges on farm-level purchases clearing dealer stock and turning into margin and cash.
Where could Deere's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is cautious first and constructive later. By October 2027, the weighted price is $554.14, or a negative return of 11% including dividends. It rises to $698.11 in October 2028, or a positive return of 13%. By October 2029, it reaches $830.90, or a positive return of 35%.
At that last date, the bear case is $310.55 and the bull case is $1,349.16. Today's $632.61 sits between them. The probabilities are 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 266.93 (-57%) | 284.36 (-53%) | 310.55 (-48%) |
| Base | 55% | 594.63 (-5%) | 742.62 (+20%) | 878.95 (+42%) |
| Bull | 20% | 801.83 (+28%) | 1092.89 (+75%) | 1349.16 (+117%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 554.14 (-11%) | 698.11 (+13%) | 830.90 (+35%) |
What has to go right or wrong for Deere?
The bear case requires large agriculture to remain weak beyond the expected trough. Financing costs keep farmers repairing older machines, factories run below capacity and tariff support fades. The price falls to $266.93 in October 2027 and reaches only $310.55 by October 2029. Its 25% probability reflects the expected 15%–20% decline in major FY2026 industry units, although smaller agriculture and construction provide some protection.
The base case assumes a gradual recovery. Smaller equipment and construction lead, large agriculture follows, and utilization improves without a rapid rebound. The price is $594.63 initially and $878.95 by the final date. Its 55% probability is highest because it matches management's cycle-bottom view while respecting continuing weakness and tariff costs.
How much cash does Deere really make?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending from operating cash. Deere’s real free cash flow also subtracts stock compensation, treating the dilution from employee shares as an economic cost even though issuing those shares does not immediately use cash. Capital spending itself is observable, but Deere does not separate maintenance investment from growth investment.
| Nov 2025 | Oct 2024 | Oct 2023 | Oct 2022 | Oct 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,100 | 6,905 | 11,919 | 6,239 | 5,900 |
| − Capital spending | 1,358 | 1,636 | 1,494 | 1,131 | 845 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,742 | 5,269 | 10,425 | 5,108 | 5,055 |
| − Stock pay | 151 | 208 | 130 | 85 | 82 |
| = Real free cash flow | 3,591 | 5,061 | 10,295 | 5,023 | 4,973 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.9% | 10.9% | 18.0% | 10.2% | 12.2% |
What does an investor pay for Deere today?
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 632.61 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 35.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 35.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.0% |