Weichai Power stock forecast
For Weichai Power, the weighted forecast reaches HK$24.19 in October 2027 and HK$29.00 in October 2029. It hinges on durable growth, cash conversion, and a mid-cycle valuation.
Where could Weichai Power's shares go?
The weighted forecast reaches HK$24.19 in October 2027, implying a 0% return including dividends, and HK$29.00 in October 2029, implying a 28% return; the outcome hinges on durable growth, cash conversion, and a mid-cycle valuation.
The valuation is 14.5x trailing P/E and 12.7x forward P/E, with a real free-cash-flow yield of 9.7%. The forecast assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 55% to base, and 20% to bull, producing a final share-price range of HK$13.47 to HK$47.92.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 15.75 (-35 %) | 14.30 (-37 %) | 13.47 (-37 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 25.32 (+4 %) | 27.33 (+17 %) | 29.18 (+30 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 31.63 (+29 %) | 40.08 (+69 %) | 47.92 (+107 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 24.19 (-0 %) | 26.62 (+14 %) | 29.00 (+28 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is a probability-based average of the three cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for Weichai Power?
The first test is whether large-engine and data-centre power orders repeat profitably in 2026, including about 4,000 data-centre backup-engine deliveries. The large-engine project targets readiness in December 2027; orders, utilization, and margins then decide whether capacity earns its projected return. In 2027–29, repeat battery orders and on-time KION backlog delivery support the bull case, while overruns, delayed collections, or weak truck demand push toward bear.
How much cash does Weichai Power really make?
The 2025 picture was much healthier. Operating cash flow reached RMB28,681.5 million, and free cash flow after capital spending, leases and interest was RMB18,907.1 million. Deducting stock compensation produces “real free cash flow” of RMB18,098.2 million, because shares paid to employees still dilute shareholders even without an immediate cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 28,681.52229605 | 26,094.12393928 | 27,470.85332984 | -2,349.49842134 | 20,717.12096408 |
| − Capital spending | 6,796.72034173 | 7,359.80952341 | 7,199.78677099 | 6,635.16134242 | 6,252.21306595 |
| = Free cash flow | 18,907.11306467 | 15,951.29435699 | 17,632.56162653 | -12,027.24334679 | 11,837.03301806 |
| − Stock pay | 808.90497682 | 412.66219791 | 173.59624464 | -160.22095468 | 275.0173528 |
| = Real free cash flow | 18,098.20808785 | 15,538.63215908 | 17,458.96538189 | -11,867.02239211 | 11,562.01566526 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.2% | -6.8% | 5.3% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash but gives away part of the company.
What does an investor pay for Weichai Power?
At HK$25.42, the trailing P/E is 14.5x. P/E means the share price divided by earnings per share: it tells us how much investors pay for each unit of current profit. But engine earnings move with factory utilisation. Buildings, machinery and staff cost money even when fewer trucks are sold, so profit can rise quickly in a strong market and fall faster than sales in a weak one. A low P/E near the top of that cycle may therefore be less attractive than a higher P/E near the bottom.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 25.42 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.7% |