BCE stock forecast
BCE’s weighted forecast is C$30.68 in October 2027 and C$35.29 in October 2029. BCE’s future hinges on turning heavy investment into cash while reducing debt and sustaining the dividend.
Where could BCE’s shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast gives C$30.68 in October 2027, a 13% total return, and C$35.29 in October 2029, a 40% total return. It assigns 35% probability to the bear case, 50% to the base case and 15% to the bull case. The base case requires Canadian stabilization, gradual Ziply and AI contributions, and partial asset-sale proceeds supporting debt reduction.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35 % | 22.15 (-17 %) | 14.50 (-38 %) | 13.08 (-39 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 33.09 (+21 %) | 36.83 (+40 %) | 41.07 (+61 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 42.55 (+54 %) | 54.10 (+101 %) | 67.86 (+156 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 30.68 (+13 %) | 31.61 (+22 %) | 35.29 (+40 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is not another scenario; it is the average value after giving each case weight based on its probability.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for BCE?
EBITDA is anchored by C$10,658 million in 2025 and Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA of C$2,702 million, up 1.0% year over year. The base path rises from C$10,900 million in October 2027 to C$11,300 million in October 2029. Ziply, Bell Media, cost efficiencies and the first AI hall support growth, but Canadian CTS EBITDA fell 3.1% in Q2 and mobile ARPU fell 2.3%. The bear path falls to C$10,200 million before partial recovery, while the bull path reaches C$12,200 million as fibre, Ziply and AI capacity scale.
Wireless discounting, weak additions and falling ARPU reduce Bell CTS Canada’s value, while fibre and AI spending delays free-cash-flow recovery. Debt rises and the multiple contracts. The bear probability is 35% because these pressures are already visible, though recurring telecom cash flows and the reduced dividend limit the chance of a complete collapse.
How much cash does BCE really make?
BCE’s reported free cash flow subtracts capital spending but leaves out lease principal payments. Those payments are contractual claims, like rent or a financed car payment. Stock-based compensation does not leave as immediate cash wages, but it still rewards employees and can dilute shareholders. A stricter cash measure therefore leaves less for dividends and debt repayment than BCE’s policy measure suggests.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,993 | 6,988 | 7,946 | 8,365 | 8,008 |
| − Capital spending | 3,700 | 3,897 | 4,581 | 5,133 | 4,852 |
| − Lease payments | 1,127 | 1,142 | 1,049 | ||
| = Free cash flow | 2,166 | 1,949 | 2,316 | ||
| − Stock pay | 90 | 84 | 95 | 101 | 95 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,076 | 1,865 | 2,221 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out acquisition costs and certain pension and tax payments that we count as cash spent.
What does an investor pay for BCE today?
The gap between BCE’s trailing and forward P/E tells two different stories. Trailing P/E uses earnings already reported, while forward P/E uses an estimate for the coming year. Like a shop that looks cheap after an unusually profitable year, BCE can appear inexpensive when past earnings are unusually strong. In Q2 2026, net earnings attributable to common shareholders fell 3.6%, while adjusted EPS rose 3.2%, showing how unusual costs and accounting items can change the comparison.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 28.73 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 4.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.2x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 8.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.7% |
What this means. The price-to-earnings measure rises from 4.3 to 11.2 because analysts expect the company to earn much less profit next year than it earned recently.